Charlton Athletic vs Hull City: match statistics

Hull City are favorites based on league position (7 vs 21) and markedly superior efficiency — they average 1.55 goals away vs Charlton’s 0.95 at home. The difference in shot conversion is significant: Hull convert at 14% with 4.23 shots on target per game, while Charlton only 7% with 3.95 SoT, indicating the visitors convert chances into goals roughly twice as often. Although Charlton produce higher home xG (1.44) than Hull’s away xG (1.25), the hosts only deliver 0.95 goals (about -0.49 versus xG), whereas Hull have +0.30 (1.55 vs 1.25) — this points to an advantage for the visitors in finishing quality. Form over the last 5 matches also favors Hull: Charlton 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, averaging 0.4 points per game; Hull 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, averaging 0.8 PPG. Additionally, Charlton’s home win rate is 36% versus Hull’s 45% away win rate. Considering Hull’s superior season goal tally (67 vs 41), better conversion and Charlton’s underperforming xG, I back the away win.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 64% (Charlton 64% vs Hull 64%), exceeding the league average of 56% and indicating both sides score in 64 of 100 matches. In the last 5 league games Charlton registered BTTS in 100% of matches, Hull in 80%; concurrently Charlton concedes on average 1.6 goals across those five games and Hull 1.2, which increases the likelihood of goal exchange. Both teams score close to 1.5 goals per match (Charlton 1.5, Hull 1.55) and have xG of 1.32 and 1.25, while averaging 3.91 and 4.23 shots on target and 11.73 and 10.68 shots overall; at the same time xG against is 1.41 for Charlton and 1.90 for Hull, suggesting many created and conceded chances. Clean sheets are rare (Charlton 23%, Hull 27%), and matches with over 2.5 goals occur in 59% and 68% of cases; the combination of over 2.5 + BTTS is 55% and 59%, whereas over 2.5 without BTTS is only 5% and 9%, which confirms a tendency toward high-scoring matches with both teams scoring. Considering these indicators (64% vs 64% BTTS, 100% vs 80% in the last 5 and low clean sheet probabilities of 23% and 27%), I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 80% vs 20% for No.

Both teams show solid attacking output: Charlton scores 1.5 goals per game on average, Hull 1.55, and both sides have a BTTS rate of 64%. Estimated xG are 1.61 for Charlton (attacking xG 1.32 vs Hull’s defensive xG 1.90) and 1.33 for Hull (attacking xG 1.25 vs Charlton’s defensive xG 1.41), totaling 2.94 expected goals. Season-over-2.5 rates are 59% for Charlton and 68% for Hull (average 64%), and in the last 5 matches Charlton scored 5 and conceded 8 while Hull scored 5 and conceded 6, which confirms open games. The league average is 2.58 goals per match, and our projected total xG of 2.94 exceeds this, increasing the probability of three or more goals. Based on these figures the strongest signal is Over at the 2.5 line (recommendation: Over 2.5).

I predict X/X (draw at Half-Time and draw at Full-Time) as the most likely scenario. Charlton drew at the break in 5 of their last 5 matches (100%) and were never leading at half-time in those five games (0%), which significantly increases the probability of a draw at half-time. Hull have drawn in 80% of their last 5 matches, and seasonally both teams record 41% draws at the break (41% vs 41%), which further strengthens the draw signal. Average goals are very similar — Charlton 1.50 goals per match versus Hull 1.55, xG 1.32 vs 1.25 — and both teams have 64% of matches with both teams scoring, so the safest scenario appears to be a scoring draw (e.g. 1:1).