Châteauroux vs Concarneau: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates balanced chances for both teams, with a slight edge for the draw scenario. Châteauroux shows disastrous home form with only 8% win efficiency at home and as many as 58% losses, confirmed by a series of four consecutive defeats in their last five matches. Concarneau, on the other hand, is characterized by a high percentage of draws away (42%) and solid defense, as shown by 42% clean sheets. The hosts have an advantage in ball possession (54% vs 43%) and better xG (1.34 vs 1.02), however, their inefficiency in finishing (6% shot conversion) and high FTS% (58%) significantly limit their chances of winning. Taking into account the poor form of both teams in their last five matches and Concarneau's tendency to draw away, the most likely outcome is a share of the points.
Châteauroux vs Concarneau: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Châteauroux played Concarneau in National (France). The match was played on 27 March 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Châteauroux: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Concarneau: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Châteauroux scores 0.92 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Concarneau scores 1.08 and concedes 1.13. League average: 2.40 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Châteauroux 50%, Concarneau 38%. Over 2.5: Châteauroux 50%, Concarneau 42%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Concarneau has higher xG: 1.25 vs 1.21. Châteauroux: 9.8 shots per match, Concarneau: 10.4.
Match halves
Châteauroux: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.50. Concarneau: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.58.
Goals by minute
Châteauroux: 46-60 (6 goals). Concarneau: 61-75 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National: 2.40 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates balanced chances for both teams, with a slight edge for the draw scenario. Châteauroux shows disastrous home form with only 8% win efficiency at home and as many as 58% losses, confirmed by a series of four consecutive defeats in their last five matches. Concarneau, on the other hand, is characterized by a high percentage of draws away (42%) and solid defense, as shown by 42% clean sheets. The hosts have an advantage in ball possession (54% vs 43%) and better xG (1.34 vs 1.02), however, their inefficiency in finishing (6% shot conversion) and high FTS% (58%) significantly limit their chances of winning. Taking into account the poor form of both teams in their last five matches and Concarneau's tendency to draw away, the most likely outcome is a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The data indicates that Châteauroux are clearly in a stronger position to score (xG for 1.49 and 13.67 shots per match) against a Concarneau defense that concedes high expected goals (xG against 1.44). Meanwhile, Concarneau possess only moderate attacking power (xG for 1.02), while Châteauroux defend relatively solidly in terms of chance quality (xG against 0.86), which significantly reduces the visitors' chances of scoring. The seasonal BTTS rates are below the league average (Châteauroux 42%, Concarneau 33% vs league 54%), and Concarneau frequently fail to score (FTS 50%), favoring the 'No' side of the BTTS market. Despite both teams conceding an average of 1.4 goals in their last 5 matches, Châteauroux have been very inefficient in front of goal during this period (0.6 goals scored on average), increasing the likelihood of a 0-1/0-0 or 1-0 scoreline. Furthermore, Concarneau's high clean sheet percentage (42%) supports the scenario where one team fails to find the net.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG indicates approximately 2.40 goals in the match (1.46 for Châteauroux and 0.94 for Concarneau), meaning the scenario most frequently falls within the 2–3 goal range. Seasonal data supports a moderately low-scoring match: both teams have only 42% of matches with over 2.5 goals and a high under 3.5 rate (Châteauroux 75%, Concarneau 83%). Concarneau often fails to score (FTS 50%) and has a solid clean sheet percentage (42%), which limits the risk of a high-scoring outcome. Châteauroux generates plenty of shots (13.67) and shots on target (4.92), but with a low conversion rate of 9% and recent efficiency of 0.6 goals per match in the last 5 games, it does not profile as an 'over' team. Meanwhile, the last 5 matches for both sides show an over 2.5 rate of 40%, which does not contradict the base forecast of approx. 2.4 goals. Therefore, the strongest signal is the protective selection of under 3.5, consistent with the goal distribution and seasonal trends.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal for the half-time result is a draw: Châteauroux draws at HT in 50% of their matches, and Concarneau in 42%, with very low first-half scoring (HT avg: 1.0 vs 0.92) and high clean sheet percentages at HT for both sides (67%). The intensity increases in the second half (averaging 1.33 and 1.17 goals), which favors a resolution after the break. The hosts show an advantage in the quality of chances and game control (xG for 1.49 vs 1.02, xG against 0.86 vs 1.44; shots 13.67 vs 7.17, on target 4.92 vs 3.33), and Concarneau concedes an average of 1.17 goals per match. This indicates that with a level start, Châteauroux is statistically more likely to carry the advantage in the latter stages and win the match. At the same time, Concarneau's high share of draws (42%) boosts the draw/draw alternative, but the xG and shot profile shifts the peak towards draw/home win.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Châteauroux | Concarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Concarneau is 300% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Châteauroux · 0.8 pts / match - Concarneau
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Concarneau is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
0.92 goals / match - Châteauroux · 1.08 goals / match - Concarneau
Concarneau is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Châteauroux · 1.13 goals / match - Concarneau
Châteauroux scores in 54% of matches (13 of 24 matches), while Concarneau keeps a clean sheet in 38% (9 of 24 matches).
Concarneau scores in 58% of matches (14 of 24 matches), while Châteauroux keeps a clean sheet in 21% (5 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Châteauroux
Over / Under - Concarneau
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Concarneau is 28% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.04 pts / match - Châteauroux · 1.33 pts / match - Concarneau
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Châteauroux - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 13%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Concarneau - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Châteauroux
Concarneau
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National).
Teams vs league
| Châteauroux | Liga | Concarneau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.25 | 2.40 | ▼ 2.21 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 54% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 28% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 71% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 75% | 72% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Châteauroux 0 - 1 - 0 Concarneau. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Châteauroux vs Concarneau?
The National match finished Châteauroux 3:1 Concarneau. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Châteauroux vs Concarneau?
Châteauroux score 0.92 goals per game on average and Concarneau 1.08. The National average is 2.40 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Châteauroux's matches and 38% of Concarneau's.
What form are Châteauroux and Concarneau in?
Over the last 5 games Châteauroux have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Concarneau 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Châteauroux vs Concarneau?
The statistical background for Châteauroux vs Concarneau — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.