Chattanooga FC vs Orlando City II: match statistics
Chattanooga FC vs Orlando City II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Chattanooga FC played Orlando City II in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 18 July 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Chattanooga FC: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match. Orlando City II: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Chattanooga FC scores 1.89 and concedes 1.61 goals per match. Orlando City II scores 2.22 and concedes 1.72. League average: 3.25 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Chattanooga FC 67%, Orlando City II 89%. Over 2.5: Chattanooga FC 61%, Orlando City II 83%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Orlando City II has higher xG: 1.85 vs 1.66. Chattanooga FC: 13.7 shots per match, Orlando City II: 15.5.
Match halves
Chattanooga FC: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.89. Orlando City II: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 1.50.
Goals by minute
Chattanooga FC: 31-45+ (9 goals). Orlando City II: 61-75 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.25 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-2. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 80%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win: Chattanooga FC shows strong home metrics — averaging 2.00 goals per home match, xG 1.77 and 6 shots on target per game, while Orlando City II away averages 1.75 goals, xG 1.49 and 4.63 shots on target. Additionally, Chattanooga keeps a clean sheet in 44% of home matches vs Orlando’s 13% away; home goal difference is +7 compared to +4 for the visitors on the road. In the last 5 fixtures Chattanooga scored 9 goals and remains unbeaten (1 win, 4 draws, averaging 1.4 points per game), while Orlando scored 8 goals and has a 2-2-1 record (averaging 1.6 points per game). Both teams concede at a similar rate (1.22 for the home side vs 1.25 for Orlando away), but with nearly identical shot conversion ~14% Chattanooga’s advantage in shot volume (14.33 vs 12.38) and xG (1.77 vs 1.49) indicates more high-quality chances. Considering this alongside superior clean sheet rate and better home goal difference, I assign Chattanooga a 50% chance to win, 28% for a draw and 22% for an Orlando win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS is strongly supported by seasonal indicators for both teams: Chattanooga has BTTS 100% this season and Orlando City II 75%, yielding a seasonal average of 87.5%. In the last 5 matches the rates remain strong — 80% for Chattanooga and 100% for Orlando (90% average) — and the home side has 0% clean sheets this season while the visitors have only 13% clean sheets. Offensively, the hosts score 2.6 goals per game with xG 2.14 and an average of 8.3 shots on target, while the visitors score 1.75 goals with xG 1.49 and 4.63 shots on target, indicating realistic scoring potential for both sides. Additionally, seasonal defensive stats show Chattanooga concedes 2.1 goals on average and Orlando 1.25, and the league BTTS is 61%, so the team-specific data are clearly stronger. Given the hosts’ 100% seasonal BTTS, the visitors’ 75% and the strong last-5 form, I select BTTS - Yes as the best pick with an estimated probability of 88% versus 12% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Season-long numbers show Chattanooga scores 2.6 goals per game and Orlando City II 1.75, indicating a fixture inclined toward higher goal totals. xG comparison: hosts have an attacking xG of 2.14 while Orlando’s defense concedes xG against of 1.45 — translating to roughly 1.80 expected goals for the hosts; similarly the visitors have attacking xG 1.49 and the hosts’ defense xG against 1.76 (~1.62 expected goals for the visitors), totaling ≈3.42 expected goals. Chattanooga records over 2.5 in 100% of matches this season, Orlando in 63%, and BTTS occurs in 100% and 75% respectively, which further supports the over. A Poisson model with λ=3.42 estimates over 1.5 ≈86%, over 2.5 ≈66% and over 3.5 ≈45%, so the optimal line to target appears to be Over 2.5 goals. Note that in the last 5 matches average goals dropped to 1.8 (Chattanooga) and 1.6 (Orlando), which reduces the probability of a very high Over 3.5 but does not weaken the signal for 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The home side dominates first-half chance creation: Chattanooga averages 8.3 shots on target and 2.14 xG in the first half versus Orlando's 4.63 shots on target and 1.49 xG, with hosts scoring on average 1.00 goals by the break versus 0.38 for the visitors. In the last five matches Chattanooga led at the break in 60% of cases (3/5), while Orlando did so in only 20% (1/5), which increases the probability of a home lead at half-time. Nonetheless, the full-time outcome favors the visitors: Orlando have a 63% win rate this season versus Chattanooga’s 40% and average 2.0 points per game vs. 1.6 for the hosts, and over the last five fixtures they perform better in second halves (on average 1.6 points vs. the hosts’ 0.8). Additionally, both teams frequently concede and score (both teams scored in 100% of the hosts’ matches and in 75% of the visitors’), so a scenario where the home team leads at half-time but the visitors prevail after the final whistle (HT/FT 1/2) is the most justified.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Chattanooga FC | Orlando City II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Orlando City II is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Chattanooga FC · 1.6 pts / match - Orlando City II
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Orlando City II is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.89 goals / match - Chattanooga FC · 2.22 goals / match - Orlando City II
Chattanooga FC is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.61 goals / match - Chattanooga FC · 1.72 goals / match - Orlando City II
Chattanooga FC scores in 89% of matches (16 of 18 matches), while Orlando City II keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 18 matches).
Orlando City II scores in 94% of matches (17 of 18 matches), while Chattanooga FC keeps a clean sheet in 22% (4 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Chattanooga FC
Over / Under - Orlando City II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Chattanooga FC is 78% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Chattanooga FC · 0.94 pts / match - Orlando City II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Chattanooga FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Orlando City II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Chattanooga FC
Orlando City II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Chattanooga FC | Liga | Orlando City II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.50 | 3.25 | ▲ 3.94 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 62% | ▲ 89% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 61% | 66% | ▲ 83% |
| Clean sheets | • 22% | 22% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 72% | 75% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 94% | 84% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Chattanooga FC 2 - 1 - 2 Orlando City II. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 80% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Chattanooga FC vs Orlando City II?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Chattanooga FC 1:1 Orlando City II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Chattanooga FC and Orlando City II?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Chattanooga FC won 2, Orlando City II won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Chattanooga FC vs Orlando City II?
Chattanooga FC score 1.89 goals per game on average and Orlando City II 2.22. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.25 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Chattanooga FC's matches and 89% of Orlando City II's.
What form are Chattanooga FC and Orlando City II in?
Over the last 5 games Chattanooga FC have a 1-4-0 record (1.40 points per game) and Orlando City II 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Chattanooga FC vs Orlando City II?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.