Chattanooga Red Wolves vs NY Cosmos: match statistics

Chattanooga Red Wolves are significantly more effective at home, averaging 1.89 goals per match, while NY Cosmos score just 0.78 goals away from home. The hosts have won 67% of their home games and kept a clean sheet in 56% of them, whereas Cosmos have lost every away match, conceding an average of 2.89 goals. The difference is also reflected in their current form: Red Wolves have recorded 3 wins in their last 5 matches and scored 10 goals during that run, while the visitors have managed just 2 goals over the same period. Cosmos do have a higher away xG, 1.39 compared with the hosts’ 1.34, but they are extremely inefficient in front of goal, converting just 7% of their shots compared with 18% for Red Wolves. The visitors’ poor defensive record, with not a single clean sheet away from home, should allow the hosts to capitalize on their home advantage and secure the win.

Chattanooga Red Wolves have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals while conceding as many as 2.2. NY Cosmos have shown weaker recent attacking form, scoring just 2 goals in their last five outings and recording BTTS in 20% of matches, which clearly reduces confidence in the pick. However, the hosts have allowed opponents an xG of 1.89 over their last five league fixtures, while Cosmos create an average of 1.44 xG, giving the visitors a realistic route to scoring at least once. In addition, Cosmos have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match this season and concede an average of 2.89 goals, while Red Wolves register 5.0 shots on target per game. The hosts’ superior attacking quality, combined with their defensive vulnerability, marginally supports BTTS - Yes, although the visitors’ low recent goal output makes this a moderate-strength pick.

Chattanooga Red Wolves should create plenty of chances against an NY Cosmos defense that concedes an average of 2.89 goals per game and has kept no clean sheets. The hosts generate an average of 1.60 xG and 5.0 shots on target, while their opponents allow an average of 1.81 xG. The 1.5 line has been covered in 70% of the hosts’ matches and in all NY Cosmos games, while Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% and 89% of matches, respectively. Red Wolves’ last five games produced as many as 21 goals, or 4.2 per match, although Cosmos’ scoring form is weaker at just 0.4 goals per game. The strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as even a limited contribution from the visitors should not be enough to halt the hosts’ attack against such a vulnerable defense.

The most likely outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Chattanooga Red Wolves win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 70% of their matches, while NY Cosmos recorded a half-time draw in 60% of their last five games. The opening stages should be cautious: Red Wolves average just 0.3 goals before the break, compared with Cosmos’ 0.11, while the visitors have failed to score in the first half in each of their last five matches. After the break, the hosts’ advantage increases, as they average 0.9 goals overall and as many as 1.6 goals in the second half across their last five games. Cosmos concede an average of 1.33 goals after half-time and have lost every match played this season, allowing opponents 2.89 goals per game. In addition, Chattanooga have a higher xG of 1.60 compared with 1.39, and average 5.0 shots on target against their opponents’ 3.56, reinforcing the HT/FT turnaround scenario.