Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise: match statistics
Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Chattanooga Red Wolves played Sarasota Paradise in USL League One (United States). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
Chattanooga Red Wolves: 1-1-2, 1.00 points/match. Sarasota Paradise: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Chattanooga Red Wolves scores 1.25 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Sarasota Paradise scores 0.88 and concedes 1.63. League average: 2.75 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Chattanooga Red Wolves 75%, Sarasota Paradise 50%. Over 2.5: Chattanooga Red Wolves 75%, Sarasota Paradise 50%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Sarasota Paradise has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.39. Chattanooga Red Wolves: 11.3 shots per match, Sarasota Paradise: 12.8.
Match halves
Chattanooga Red Wolves: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.50. Sarasota Paradise: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.38.
Goals by minute
Chattanooga Red Wolves: 16-30 (2 goals). Sarasota Paradise: 61-75 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL League One: 2.75 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorite is Chattanooga Red Wolves: at home they record an average xG of 1.78 versus the visitors' 1.05 xG on the road and attempt an average of 13 shots per match compared to Sarasota's 8.5. Defensively the hosts look better — they concede an average of 1.00 goal at home, while Sarasota concedes 2.00 goals away and has conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches versus 7 for Chattanooga. Both teams, however, have clear finishing issues: the hosts average 0 goals in home matches, the visitors 0 goals away, and both sides have scored 3 goals in their last 5 fixtures. Form is poor on both sides — Chattanooga in the last 5 matches is 0-1-4 with 0.2 pts/match, and Sarasota 1-0-4 with 0.6 pts/match. Considering the advantage in quality of chances (xG 1.78 vs 1.05), higher shot volume (13 vs 8.5) and the better defensive profile (xG against 0.80 vs 1.76), I forecast a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because Chattanooga has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% versus the league average of 56%, and although Sarasota shows 0% in season-long BTTS data, both teams recorded BTTS in 40% of their last 5 matches. xG and shot metrics indicate the hosts create more (xG 1.54, 14.17 shots and 4.17 on target), while the visitors still post xG 1.05 and 8.5 shots per game, so both sides are capable of producing at least one goal. Both teams have conceded frequently over the last 5 fixtures: Chattanooga conceded 7 (1.4 avg), Sarasota 10 (2.0 avg), which increases the likelihood that both will score. Additionally, seasonal goal figures (hosts 5 scored and 6 conceded, visitors 7 scored and 13 conceded) and the visitors’ lack of clean sheets (0% seasonally) support the BTTS scenario; on this basis I assess BTTS probability at 65% vs 35% and recommend Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Chattanooga (xG_for 1.54 vs opponent xG_against 1.76) and 1.13 for Sarasota (xG_for 1.05 vs home xG_against 1.21), totaling 2.78, slightly above the league average of 2.75. A Poisson estimate for a total of 2.78 yields roughly a 77% probability for Over 1.5 (P≥2), about 53% for Over 2.5 (P≥3), and approximately 30% for Over 3.5 (P≥4). The hosts average 14.17 shots and 4.17 on target per match versus Sarasota’s 8.5 shots and 1.5 on target, increasing the likelihood of goals for Chattanooga. Season-long data show 67% of the hosts’ matches finish Over 1.5, while Sarasota’s matches are 100% Over 1.5, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side Over) as the strongest selection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is X/1 (draw at Half-Time, Chattanooga win by Full-Time): I assign it a 34% probability. Chattanooga led at the break in 33% of matches and drew in 50% of their games, while Sarasota has not won any match this season (0% wins) and averages 0.0 goals per game. The home side has a higher average xG (1.54 versus 1.05 for the visitors), averages 4.17 shots on target compared to 1.5 for the opponents, and scores 0.67 goals in the first half (visitors 0.0), which suggests a growing home advantage after the break. Therefore, besides X/1 (34%) I also give a 24% probability to 1/1 and 14% to X/X, treating the remaining outcomes as unlikely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | Sarasota Paradise | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Chattanooga Red Wolves is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Chattanooga Red Wolves · 0.6 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Chattanooga Red Wolves is 42% better for: goals scored per match.
1.25 goals / match - Chattanooga Red Wolves · 0.88 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise
Chattanooga Red Wolves is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Chattanooga Red Wolves · 1.63 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise
Chattanooga Red Wolves scores in 75% of matches (3 of 4 matches), while Sarasota Paradise keeps a clean sheet in 13% (1 of 8 matches).
Sarasota Paradise scores in 63% of matches (5 of 8 matches), while Chattanooga Red Wolves keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Chattanooga Red Wolves
Over / Under - Sarasota Paradise
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sarasota Paradise is 38% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Chattanooga Red Wolves · 1.38 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Chattanooga Red Wolves - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Sarasota Paradise - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.9 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 75% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 25% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 75% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -7 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Sarasota Paradise
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | Liga | Sarasota Paradise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.75 | 2.75 | ▼ 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 56% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 75% | 56% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 25% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 73% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | • 75% | 76% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise?
The USL League One match finished Chattanooga Red Wolves 4:1 Sarasota Paradise. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise?
Chattanooga Red Wolves score 1.25 goals per game on average and Sarasota Paradise 0.88. The USL League One average is 2.75 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 75% of Chattanooga Red Wolves's matches and 50% of Sarasota Paradise's.
What form are Chattanooga Red Wolves and Sarasota Paradise in?
Over the last 5 games Chattanooga Red Wolves have a 1-1-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Sarasota Paradise 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.