Chełmianka Chełm vs Sokół Kolbuszowa Dolna: match statistics

Chełmianka Chełm are showing very solid current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, drawn once, and scored 9 goals in total. The hosts conceded only 4 goals during this period, while Sokół Kolbuszowa Dolna allowed 5 goals in their last five games. Sokół are also dangerous in attack, with 8 goals in their last 5 appearances, and in their only away match of the season they created an average of 1.53 xG from 16 shots and 60% possession. However, that away fixture ended in a 2:2 draw, with the visitors failing to keep a clean sheet and conceding an average of 2 goals per away game. Chełmianka’s stronger run of form and home advantage give the hosts a slight edge, although Sokół’s high attacking potential increases the likelihood of a draw.

The signal for both sides to score is supported by recent form: Chełmianka averaged 1.8 goals per match across its last five games, while Sokół averaged 1.6. During the same period, the teams conceded 0.8 and 1.0 goals respectively, indicating that both attacks have a realistic route to goal, although the hosts defended slightly more reliably. BTTS occurred in 40% of Chełmianka’s last five matches and 60% of Sokół’s games, while the league average is a high 67%. Sokół also recorded an average of 1.12 xG in its recent matches and 1.53 xG in the season data, making its goal likely. However, some of the hosts’ season data is incomplete, which reduces confidence in the selection. Therefore, BTTS - Yes remains the most likely outcome, but only with a moderate edge over the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

In their last five matches, Chełmianka averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, with their games producing an average of 2.6 goals. Over the same period, Sokół averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, also resulting in an average of 2.6 goals per match. The hosts have won four of their last five appearances, while the visitors have lost only once, so both sides demonstrate offensive potential. Additionally, 60% of Sokół’s last five matches went over the 2.5-goal line, while the league average stands at a high 3.44 goals. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as the projected total of 2.70 goals provides a clear margin above this line, whereas Over 2.5 is a more balanced proposition.

Chełmianka are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.6 points, won 80% of their games and remain unbeaten, while Sokół have averaged 2.0 points and recorded a 20% loss rate. At half-time, the home side were level in 100% of their recent matches, with an average first-half record of 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, strongly supporting the draw at the break scenario. Sokół can, however, start aggressively, leading at the break in 60% of their last matches and conceding just 0.2 goals per game during this period, so scenarios involving a second-half advantage for the visitors retain a meaningful chance. After the interval, the balance should shift towards Chełmianka, who average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, with a 67% second-half win rate, compared with Sokół’s average of 0.8 goals scored. The most likely outcome is therefore a draw at half-time followed by a home win, driven by Chełmianka’s stronger finish and more consistent overall form.