Chełmianka Chełm vs Świdniczanka Świdnik: match statistics

Chełmianka Chełm is in significantly better form and boasts superior statistics compared to Świdniczanka Świdnik. The hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 3, which gives them an impressive 2.6 points per game. At home, they are particularly effective with a 73% win rate, 45% clean sheets, and a +10 goal difference. Świdniczanka, however, is experiencing a disastrous run – 5 consecutive defeats, no points in recent matches, and just an 18% away win rate with 73% losses. The visitors concede an average of 2.73 goals per away match and have not recorded a single clean sheet, which, given the hosts' efficiency (averaging 1.55 goals per home game), points to a certain victory for Chełmianka. The disparity in quality, form, and efficiency between the two teams is so pronounced that a draw or an away win seems highly unlikely.

Seasonal data suggests a high BTTS probability (Chełmianka 75%, Świdniczanka 73%) and a complete lack of clean sheets for both sides (0%). However, current form significantly diminishes the visitors' scoring potential. In their last 5 matches, Świdniczanka averages only 0.2 goals per game (1 goal total) with a BTTS rate of just 20%, indicating a tangible risk of them failing to score. Simultaneously, Chełmianka has improved its defense in the same period (0.6 goals conceded per game), further complicating the visitors' chances of finding the net. The hosts should score as Świdniczanka concedes heavily (2.73 goals per game this season; 2.6 in the last 5). The key question mark lies with the away team's goal. Consequently, a scenario where at least one team fails to score is more likely, despite the high seasonal BTTS trends.

The strongest signal for goals is Świdniczanka's very poor defense: 2.73 goals conceded per game and a high xG against (xg_against_avg_away 1.74), with 91% of their matches featuring Over 2.5 goals. Chełmianka has significantly increased their offensive output in the last 5 matches (2.4 goals/match, xG 1.77), while their opponent in the same period conceded an average of 2.6 goals. Both teams have 0% clean sheets, and the BTTS stats are very high (75% and 73%), supporting a scenario of at least two goals. However, the away team's scoring form in the last5 is very weak (0.2 goals/match), which is why the projection favors Over 1.5 more than aggressive lines like 2.5/3.5. Consequently, surpassing 1.5 total goals is the most likely outcome, with a moderate probability for Over 2.5.

The strongest signal points towards a Chełmianka win both at half-time and full-time, as their form from the last 5 matches is clearly superior (2.6 PPG, 80% wins) compared to Świdniczanka (0.0 PPG, 5 losses, 0.2 goals scored/match). In the last 5 matches, the hosts average 2.4 goals scored and concede only 0.6, while the visitors concede 2.6, supporting the scenario of taking an early lead and controlling the result. First-half data from the last 5 games further strengthens the pick: Chełmianka has a 67% rate of leading at the break, averaging 1.67 goals scored in HT and 0.0 conceded, while Świdniczanka averages 0.0 goals scored in HT. On a season-wide scale, both defenses are weak (CS 0%), but Świdniczanka has a significantly higher average goals conceded (2.73) and a worse xG against (1.74), increasing the probability of a loss also in the second half. Alternatively, the X/1 variant is possible, as Chełmianka has very strong second halves (71% of 2H won and 2.29 PPG in 2H), however, the most probable Half-Time/Full-Time outcome remains 1/1.