Chełmianka Chełm vs Wisłoka Dębica: match statistics

Chełmianka Chełm remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, with a goal difference of 8:4 and an average of 2.2 points per game. At home, the hosts won their only match played so far, scored 2 goals and kept a clean sheet, while Wisłoka Dębica have yet to record an away match without conceding. The visitors average 1.5 goals scored away from home, but create chances worth only 0.91 xG per match, while their opponents generate 1.61 xG against them. In addition, Wisłoka have conceded 9 goals and suffered 2 defeats in their last five appearances, contrasting with Chełmianka’s more consistent defensive record. Home advantage and the hosts’ stronger recent form point towards a Chełmianka win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome given their two draws in the last five matches.

Seasonal data strongly supports goals from both sides, as Chełmianka and Wisłoka have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither side has kept a clean sheet yet. Chełmianka score an average of 3.0 goals at home, while Wisłoka average 1.5 away, with both teams conceding an average of 1.0 goal. The hosts create more danger, registering an average of 6.0 shots on target compared with Wisłoka’s 3.0, but Chełmianka’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.47, giving the visitors a realistic route to goal. Caution is warranted based on the last five matches, in which Chełmianka’s BTTS rate fell to 40%, while their average goals conceded stood at just 0.8. Nevertheless, Wisłoka have scored an average of 1.4 goals in their last five appearances and conceded as many as 1.8, so the more likely scenario remains that both teams will find the net.

Chełmianka have averaged 1.6 goals scored over their last five matches, while Wisłoka have conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game during the same period, clearly favouring at least two goals in the match. The hosts average 12 shots, including 6 on target, whereas Wisłoka allow opponents a high average xG of 1.61. The visitors have also scored in every match so far this season, and both teams have recorded at least two goals in 100% of their matches. The league average stands at 2.95 goals, while the projection of 2.80 is based on Chełmianka’s solid attacking output and Wisłoka’s vulnerable defence in recent games. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5, as even with a more cautious adjustment for current form, the probability of two goals is clearly the highest.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Chełmianka victory at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 100% of their last five matches and subsequently avoided defeat in all of them. Chełmianka have averaged 1.6 goals scored and conceded just 0.8 over their last five matches, while Wisłoka have conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game during this period. After the break, the hosts won 33% of their last five matches and remained unbeaten, whereas the visitors lost the second half in 50% of cases and conceded an average of 1.25 goals in those periods. The hosts’ advantage is also supported by the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.61 compared with Wisłoka’s 0.91, while the number of shots on target is 6 to 3.