Chelsea vs Hull City: match statistics

Chelsea have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals in the process, while Hull City have managed just 4 goals over the same period and have drawn 3 times. At home, the hosts average 17 shots and 6 shots on target per match, clearly more than Hull City’s away averages of 6 and 2, respectively. Chelsea’s superiority in the quality of chances created is also reflected in the average xG: 1.65 compared with 0.72 for the visitors. Hull City have yet to concede away from home, but their average xG against stands at 1.30, suggesting that maintaining this run of clean sheets could prove difficult against such an effective opponent. Chelsea concede an average of 3 goals at home and have failed to keep a clean sheet, so the visitors have a chance to score; however, the greater attacking potential points to a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Hull City have averaged just 0.8 goals over their last 5 matches and 1.0 goal per game throughout the season. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far this season and conceded just 1 goal in their last five appearances, although their average xG against was higher at 1.55. Chelsea are in good attacking form, averaging 2.6 goals and an xG of 1.86 across their last 5 matches, giving them a strong chance of scoring at least once. However, the hosts have conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period, giving Hull some opportunity to find the net, but the visitors’ low scoring output and their BTTS rate of just 20% in their last 5 matches carry greater weight. The seasonal 0% BTTS rate for both teams further supports a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal is the low goal line: both Chelsea and Hull have finished below 3.5 goals in every match played under these conditions so far. In their last five appearances, Hull have averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, and none of their matches during this period went over 2.5 goals. Chelsea are considerably more dangerous, averaging 2.6 goals scored in their last five matches with an xG of 1.86, but Hull’s defence allowed just 1.55 xG on average. The hosts also register more shots on target, 4.0 compared with the opponent’s 2.0, which supports their advantage, but the projection of 1.65 to 0.75 gives a total of 2.40 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 has a clear edge, as even a scenario in which Chelsea dominate does not require an open game with four goals.

Chelsea have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals, while Hull remain unbeaten, although 3 of their 5 matches have ended in draws. The hosts are more likely to impose the tempo before the break: they average 1.4 goals in the first halves compared with Hull’s 0.6, and they were leading at half-time in 40% of their last five matches. In the current home data, Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches and scored both of their goals before the break, whereas Hull have yet to score in the first half of an away match. Chelsea’s edge in chance creation, reflected in 4 shots on target and an xG of 1.13 compared with Hull’s 2 shots on target and xG of 0.72, supports the scenario of the hosts taking the lead at the break. The most likely outcome is therefore 1/1, although Hull’s high draw rate also increases the likelihood of a half-time draw followed by a Chelsea win at full-time.