Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest: match statistics
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Chelsea play Nottingham Forest in Premier League (England). The match date is 4 May 2026 at 16:00. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Chelsea: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Nottingham Forest: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Chelsea scores 1.53 and concedes 1.37 goals per match. Nottingham Forest scores 1.26 and concedes 1.34. League average: 2.75 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Chelsea 63%, Nottingham Forest 47%. Over 2.5: Chelsea 66%, Nottingham Forest 53%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Chelsea has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.44. Chelsea: 13.4 shots per match, Nottingham Forest: 12.5.
Match halves
Chelsea: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.84. Nottingham Forest: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.76.
Goals by minute
Chelsea: 46-60 (14 goals). Nottingham Forest: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.75 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I predict a home win (1). Chelsea has a clear advantage in chance creation at their stadium: average xG in home matches is 1.71 versus Nottingham’s 1.25 xG away, average shots 15.18 vs 10.24 and average possession 59% vs 45%. Nottingham, however, is in significantly better form over the last 5 fixtures — average points per game in that span is 2.6, the visitors scored 12 goals and have 4 wins and 1 draw, while Chelsea average 1.2 points, 8 goals and have 2 wins and 3 losses. Defensively Chelsea’s strengths are lower average goals conceded at home (1.24 vs 1.41 for Nottingham away) and lower average xG against (1.23 vs 1.58), although the visitors are more efficient with shots (conversion 13% vs 9%). Considering the higher quality of created chances and league position (9 vs 16) I assign a somewhat higher probability to the home side, but I expect a tight match with the possibility of several goals.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Chelsea | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nottingham Forest is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Chelsea · 1.6 pts / match - Nottingham Forest
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Chelsea is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.53 goals / match - Chelsea · 1.26 goals / match - Nottingham Forest
Chelsea scores in 82% of matches (31 of 38 matches), while Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet in 24% (9 of 38 matches).
Nottingham Forest scores in 63% of matches (24 of 38 matches), while Chelsea keeps a clean sheet in 24% (9 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Chelsea
Over / Under — Nottingham Forest
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Chelsea is 47% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.47 pts / match - Chelsea · 1 pts / match - Nottingham Forest
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Chelsea - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 37%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nottingham Forest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (14 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Chelsea | Liga | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.89 | 2.75 | ▼ 2.61 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 56% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 66% | 55% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 26% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 82% | 72% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 79% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Chelsea 1 - 0 - 0 Nottingham Forest. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest?
The Premier League match finished Chelsea 1:3 Nottingham Forest. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest?
Chelsea score 1.53 goals per game on average and Nottingham Forest 1.26. The Premier League average is 2.75 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Chelsea's matches and 47% of Nottingham Forest's.
What form are Chelsea and Nottingham Forest in?
Over the last 5 games Chelsea have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Nottingham Forest 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.