Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Flota Świnoujście: match statistics

Flota Świnoujście have a clearly superior away record: they won their only away match to date, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 1 per game. The visitors also create higher-quality chances, with an average away xG of 1.89 compared with Chemik’s 1.48 at home, while allowing opponents just 0.88 xG. Chemik register fewer shots on target at home—4.5 compared with Flota’s 6—and their defence has conceded as many as 3.5 goals per home match on average. However, the hosts remain effective in front of goal, scoring 2 goals per home game and failing to score in none of their matches there, so the risk of a closely contested encounter is real. Nevertheless, Flota’s advantage in defensive organisation, the number of chances created and their away form to date points to a victory for the visitors.

The scenario of both teams scoring is supported by the high league BTTS rate of 74%, as well as the fact that Chemik recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches. The hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored during this period, while Flota conceded an average of 1.0 goal per match and allowed opponents an average xG of 1.72. Flota have strong arguments in favour of scoring, recording an average of 2.0 goals, 6 shots on target and an xG of 1.89 in away fixtures, while Chemik conceded 1.8 goals per game across their last five appearances. However, the visitors’ weaker recent scoring form increases the risk to this pick: they scored only 0.8 goals per match and recorded BTTS in 20% of their previous five games. Therefore, the edge is only moderate in favour of BTTS - Yes.

Chemik have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded across their last five matches, with over 2.5 goals landing in 60% of those games. During this period, Flota created chances worth an average of 1.39 xG, while Chemik’s defence allowed opponents 1.78 xG per match. The visitors have averaged 2.0 goals scored throughout the season, and in their only match so far, both teams scored and the game produced over 2.5 goals. The league has a very high average of 3.59 goals per match, with 63% of games featuring at least three goals, but the limited sample size and Chemik’s solid season-long defence, conceding just 0.5 goals per match, reduce confidence in the higher goal lines. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have data supporting at least two goals, while the projected total of 2.80 goals is clearly above this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Flota victory at the final whistle, as the visitors were level at the break in 100% of their matches so far this season, while in their last five games this figure stood at 60%. Flota have been clearly more effective over the season as a whole: they average 2.0 goals and a perfect 3.0 points per match, compared with Chemik’s 1.0 goal and 1.5 points. The second half is crucial, with the Świnoujście side averaging 2.0 goals after the break, while Chemik concede an average of 0.5 goals in the second half. The hosts have conceded as many as 1.67 goals before half-time in their last five appearances, but Flota have scored just 0.2 goals per game during this phase, which supports a cautious, level opening rather than an early visitors’ lead. Flota’s advantage in terms of chances is also significant: they average 18 shots, including 6 on target, with an xG of 1.89, so they should increase the pressure and turn the result in their favour after the break.