Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Polonia Środa: match statistics

Polonia Środa head into this match on the back of a five-game winning streak, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 2, while Chemik Bydgoszcz have collected 6 points from their last five matches. The visitors have won 100% of their away games, averaging 3 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet every time, whereas the hosts have drawn all of their home fixtures and conceded an average of 3 goals. Polonia’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 2.18 compared with Chemik’s 1.68, while their xG against is just 0.68 versus 1.50. The Środa side also register more shots on target away from home, averaging 10 compared with Chemik’s 6 at home, which increases the likelihood of ending the hosts’ current run of draws. Chemik can be dangerous in attack, averaging 3 goals at home, but their lack of clean sheets and weaker recent defensive form point towards an away win.

Polonia Środa are in excellent form, having won their last five matches while conceding an average of just 0.4 goals, with only 0.98 xG allowed to opponents. Chemik Bydgoszcz have averaged 1.8 goals across their last five games, but at the same time generated only 1.12 xG, suggesting a less consistent attacking profile. The visitors are producing as much as 1.81 xG and 2.4 goals per match in their latest run, making them clear favourites to score, while their highly solid defence limits the hosts’ chances. In the season data, both teams have kept a clean sheet in all of their matches, and BTTS stands at 0% for each, although the sample is clearly small. Despite the league BTTS average being a high 67%, the most likely outcome remains one in which Polonia score, but at least one team—above all Chemik—fails to find the net. This points to BTTS - No rather than an automatic 0:0; it means that at least one team is not expected to score.

Polonia Środa are in excellent form, having won their last five matches, averaging 2.4 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game. Their average xG stands at 1.81, while Chemik have allowed opponents 1.85 xG across their last five appearances, clearly supporting at least two goals in the match. At least three goals were scored in 80% of the visitors’ last five matches and 60% of the hosts’ games, while the league average of 3.44 goals is also high. Chemik have averaged 1.8 goals in their last five matches, but Polonia kept a clean sheet in four of them, so the visitors should be expected to provide the main source of goals. Over 1.5 offers the strongest edge, as Polonia’s attack averages 10 shots on target per game and regularly creates enough chances to cover this line.

Polonia Środa have won all of their last five matches, whereas Chemik Bydgoszcz have recorded just one victory during that period, along with three draws and one defeat. The visitors were leading at the break in 80% of those matches, while the hosts averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded before half-time, clearly contributing to their deficit after the first half. Polonia’s advantage is also evident in their attacking quality: their average xG stands at 2.18 compared with Chemik’s 1.84, while their average number of shots on target is as high as 10 to 4. After the break, the visitors score an average of 1.4 goals and concede just 0.2, whereas Chemik concede 1.67 goals. Therefore, the most likely scenario is Polonia leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1).