Cheonan City vs Yongin City: match statistics

I predict a draw because the home side draws in 56% of home matches and the away side draws in 50% of away matches, which strongly biases the forecast toward a split of points. Cheonan scores an average of 0.78 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.49, indicating significant inefficiency (conversion rate 6%) and fails to score in 44% of home games. Yongin away averages 1.13 goals per match with xG 1.24 and a better conversion rate of 11%, but concedes 1.38 goals per away game, so it is more effective in attack but weaker defensively. In the last 5 matches the home side averages 0.6 points (1 win, 4 losses) and the visitors 1.0 point (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), giving Yongin a slight form advantage, but not breaking the draw trend. Considering Cheonan’s superior home defense (0.78 goals conceded per match) and the overall low efficiency of both sides, the most likely outcome is a low-scoring, shared result.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are high: Cheonan has 70% BTTS, Yongin 63%, and the league level is 63%, indicating that in the majority of matches both teams score. Both teams concede regularly: Cheonan concedes 1.6 goals per game on average (1.8 in the last 5), Yongin 1.38 goals per game (1.4 in the last 5), and clean sheets occur in only 10% and 25% of matches respectively. xG and shot metrics confirm an open game: Cheonan xG_for 1.08 vs xG_against 1.57 (last 5: 1.52 vs 1.47), Yongin xG_for 1.24 vs xG_against 1.39 (last 5: 1.02 vs 1.54), while Yongin averages 10.0 shots (3.38 on target) versus Cheonan 7.6 (3.1 on target). Additionally, over 2.5 occurs for Cheonan in 60% and for Yongin in 50%, and the over2.5 + BTTS combination occurs for both teams at 50%, therefore I finally tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 75% vs 25%.

The model projects 1.26 xG for Cheonan and 1.39 xG for Yongin (total 2.65), which favors Over 2.5 goals. Seasonal metrics show Over 1.5 in 80% of Cheonan’s matches and 75% of Yongin’s, implying roughly a 78% chance of Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line Cheonan has 60% of games Over 2.5, Yongin 50%, and the league average is 55% — combined with recent form (last 5: Cheonan 60% Over 2.5, Yongin 20% Over 2.5) this yields a moderate edge for Over 2.5 (approx. 58%). Over 3.5 looks unlikely — season figures of 40% and 38% and the projected total of 2.65 argue for Under 3.5 (approx. 70%). High rates of both teams scoring (70% and 63%) and recent xG (Cheonan 1.52 vs Yongin 1.02) further support the Over 2.5 selection.

The first-half analysis indicates a high incidence of draws: Cheonan were level at the break in 40% of matches and Yongin in 75%, which together strongly supports a half-time draw (around 55–60% comparatively). A draw as the Full-Time result is also realistic, as both teams have 50% draws this season (home side 50%, away side 50%), and additionally Cheonan have lost 4 of their last 5 matches (80% defeats), which reduces their chances of maintaining a lead. Yongin however hold an offensive advantage (xG 1.24 versus 1.08 and on average 10 shots versus Cheonan’s 7.6), hence a significant share for the scenario of a lead at the break followed by a turnaround in favor of the visitors (X/2). Both teams frequently score in matches (BTTS 70% and 63%), so I expect a scoring draw (e.g. 1-1) as the most likely HT/FT outcome; therefore I assign the largest share to X/X (36%), and second to X/2 (20%).