Cheongju vs Gyeongnam: match statistics

Cheongju have won only 18% of their home matches, but have drawn as many as 45%, while Gyeongnam have shared the points in 60% of their away fixtures and won just 10%. The hosts create slightly more quality chances, averaging 1.57 xG compared with the visitors’ 1.34, and also register 13.09 shots per match versus 11 for their opponents. Their main weakness remains defensively, as they concede an average of 1.82 goals at home. However, Gyeongnam score only 0.90 goals per away game and have failed to score in 30% of such matches. Recent form also points towards a closely fought contest: Cheongju have recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last five matches, while Gyeongnam have posted 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat, conceding only 4 goals during that period. A draw therefore appears to be the most likely outcome, although Cheongju’s edge in chance creation gives the hosts a realistic chance of securing at least a point—or the full three points.

The seasonal BTTS rate stands at 64% for Cheongju and 70% for Gyeongnam, meaning both figures are above the league average of 63%. Cheongju have conceded an average of 2.0 goals over their last five matches, while Gyeongnam have scored 1.6 goals per game during the same period, which strongly supports an away goal. The hosts have averaged 1.73 goals at home, while Gyeongnam have kept no clean sheets this season and allow opponents an xG of 1.55. In addition, both teams have recently produced 1.44 xG per match, with BTTS landing in 80% and 60% of their respective last five appearances. The biggest risk to the pick is Gyeongnam’s weaker seasonal scoring output of 0.90 goals per match; however, Cheongju’s defensive profile increases the chances of a goal from both sides.

Cheongju averages 1.73 goals at home, while Gyeongnam concedes 1.30 goals away, creating favorable conditions for a home goal. Gyeongnam has failed to keep a clean sheet in any of its away matches so far, while Cheongju has scored at least once in 82% of its games. The 1.5-goal line has been exceeded in 73% of Cheongju’s matches and as many as 90% of Gyeongnam’s, while both teams also record high rates of matches with goals scored by both sides: 64% and 70%, respectively. Cheongju’s last five matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, as the team conceded 10 goals during that period, while Gyeongnam scored 8 goals. The projected total of 2.57 goals gives a clear edge to Over 1.5 goals, whereas the Over/Under 2.5 line remains considerably more balanced.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Cheongju were level after 45 minutes in 45% of their matches, while Gyeongnam did so in as many as 60%. The first half is usually cautious: the hosts average 0.64 goals in the opening 45 minutes, compared with 0.40 for the visitors, while Cheongju keep a clean sheet at half-time in 73% of their matches. After the break, the advantage should shift towards the hosts, who average 1.09 goals in second halves compared with Gyeongnam’s 0.50. Across the season, Cheongju win 45% of their matches and score an average of 1.73 goals per game, whereas Gyeongnam have just a 10% win rate and average 0.90 goals. The visitors’ recent form is slightly better, but their 60% draw rate over the season and weaker shot conversion, 8% compared with Cheongju’s 14%, reinforce the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by a home win at full-time.