Cheongju vs Jeonnam Dragons: match statistics

Cheongju have a slight home advantage: they average 1.10 goals and 1.51 xG at home, while Jeonnam Dragons create chances worth just 1.28 xG away from home. The visitors lose 58% of their away matches and fail to score in as many as 50% of them, while Cheongju’s 20% clean-sheet rate gives the hosts a defensive edge. However, both teams are far from consistent, with Cheongju collecting 5 points and Jeonnam 4 in their last five matches, alongside respective goal differences of 5:9 and 6:12. The hosts enjoy more possession on average, 53% compared with 46%, and also register more shots on target at home, 3.7 versus 3.08. Cheongju’s high home draw rate of 50% increases the risk of a share of the points, but the visitors’ weaker away defence, conceding 2.0 goals per match, slightly tilts the prediction in favour of the hosts.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by Jeonnam’s weak defence, as they concede an average of 2.00 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 8% of games. Cheongju create chances worth an average of 1.76 xG at home, recording 14.71 shots and 5.00 shots on target per match, so they should have a clear chance of scoring. The hosts are not solid at the back either: they concede an average of 1.43 goals, while their average xG against stands at 1.65, giving Jeonnam room to respond. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, with Cheongju conceding an average of 1.8 goals and Jeonnam as many as 2.4. The risk to this scenario is that Jeonnam have failed to score in 50% of their matches this season, but the low clean-sheet rates of both sides, combined with their current defensive issues, provide stronger support for BTTS - Yes.

Cheongju create chances worth an average of 1.76 xG at home, while Jeonnam Dragons allow opponents 1.51 xG away from home and concede an average of 2.00 goals per match. In their last five fixtures, both teams had at least three goals in 60% of their matches, with Cheongju conceding 9 and Jeonnam as many as 12 goals. The home side averages 14.71 shots and 5.00 shots on target per match, clearly more than the visitors’ 10.42 and 3.08, respectively, supporting their contribution to the goal total. The Over 1.5 goals line also has the strongest backing from seasonal trends: it has landed in 57% of Cheongju’s matches and 75% of Jeonnam’s, making the expectation of 2.75 goals a clear edge.

Cheongju have a clearly stronger first-half profile at home: they concede just 0.14 goals on average before the break and have kept a clean sheet in 86% of such matches. Jeonnam have been behind at half-time in as many as 58% of their away games, while conceding an average of 1.00 goal in the opening 45 minutes, making a home lead at the break the most likely outcome. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 14.71 shots and 5.00 on target compared with the visitors’ 10.42 and 3.08, respectively, alongside an xG advantage of 1.76 to 1.28. After the interval, however, Cheongju are vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 1.29 goals, which reduces confidence in their ability to maintain the lead. Even so, Jeonnam have a poor away defence, conceding 2.00 goals per match on average, while their end product is weak: just an 8% win rate and 0.58 points per game, supporting the 1/1 HT/FT outcome.