Cheongju vs Seongnam: match statistics

Seongnam hold a slight edge: they sit 10th, while Cheongju are 12th, and have collected 8 points in their last five matches compared with the hosts’ 7. The defensive gap is significant: Cheongju concede an average of 1.77 goals per home match, whereas Seongnam allow 1.38 away from home. The visitors are also slightly more efficient on the road, averaging 1.15 goals with a 10% shot conversion rate, compared with the hosts’ 1.08 goals and 8% at home. However, Cheongju create better chances on their own ground, posting an xG of 1.54 against Seongnam’s away xG of 1.42, which makes a visitors’ win a less certain pick. With Cheongju drawing 46% of their home matches, a share of the points remains a realistic outcome, but the hosts’ home win rate of just 15% supports a cautious selection of Seongnam.

BTTS occurred in 58% of Cheongju matches and 69% of Seongnam matches, compared with a league average of 61%, giving the both-teams-to-score scenario the edge. Over the last 5 matches, these rates rose to 60% and 80%, respectively, while the teams averaged 1.2 and 1.4 goals per match. Cheongju generate an average of 1.54 xG, while Seongnam concede at a rate of 1.38 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 8% of matches. The visitors also have an attacking case: their average xG is 1.42, and the hosts have conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last 5 outings. The risk to this pick is matches in which a team fails to score, accounting for 33% of Cheongju matches and 31% of Seongnam matches; however, the overall statistical picture supports BTTS - Yes.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line held in 75% of Cheongju matches and 77% of Seongnam matches. The teams’ average attacking xG is 1.54 and 1.42, respectively, indicating goalscoring chances but not making a strong case for four goals. In their last five matches, Cheongju scored an average of 1.2 goals and Seongnam 1.4; their matches produced 2.6 goals on average in both cases. The 2.5 line is less clear-cut, having been surpassed in 33% of the home team’s matches and 54% of the away team’s matches, while the projected total of 2.53 goals still favors the safer 3.5 line.

The strongest signal for a draw at half-time is that Cheongju went into the break level in 50% of its matches, compared with 46% for Seongnam; this happened as many as four times in the hosts’ last five games. Both teams score relatively few goals before the break, averaging 0.67 and 0.54 goals per match respectively, which points to a close start. A draw after 90 minutes remains the most likely outcome in this scenario: Cheongju drew 58% of its matches, while its games were level at half-time in 75% of cases in the second half. The hosts’ xG advantage is marginal — 1.54 versus 1.42 — so, although Seongnam concede an average of 1.38 goals per match compared with 1.00 for Cheongju, the data do not point to a clear favourite. Therefore, X/X is the single most likely HT/FT outcome, although the chances of a second-half decision remain significant.