Cherno More vs Arda: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Cherno More clearly creates more chances at home: average xG 1.59 versus Arda’s 1.22 and on average 12.24 shots per game versus 8.76, with 4.65 shots on target versus the visitors’ 3.59. The home defence also looks better — they concede 0.82 goals per home game versus Arda’s 1.06 conceded on the road, and the clean sheet rate is 59% versus the visitors’ 35%. In the last 5 matches Cherno More scored 5 goals and averaged 2.0 points per game (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Arda scored 7 goals and averaged 1.6 points per game (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), which gives a points advantage to the hosts. Arda has a higher shot conversion 13% versus the home side’s 9%, but the high share of goalless away matches 53% versus Cherno More’s 35% means the hosts’ defensive edge and chance creation prevail — I estimate probabilities of 55% for the home win, 25% for a draw and 20% for the away win.

Cherno More has a season BTTS rate of 22% and Arda 29%, giving a simple pair average of ~25% chance for BTTS. However, the home side keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, the visitors in 35%, and the league records as many as 69% of matches with a clean sheet, which favors No Goal. In the last 5 matches Cherno More had BTTS 0% (0/5), Arda 40% (2/5), and the percentages of matches in which they failed to score are 44% and 53% respectively — this further reduces the real BTTS probability. Although home xG is 1.65 versus 1.22 for the away team, actual goals averages are 1.06 and 1.18 with conversion rates of 8% vs 13%, so chance quality does not translate into many goals. Considering the league average of 2.31 goals/match and the above indicators, I assess BTTS - Yes at 18% and back the 'No' scenario at 82%.

The forecast is based on averaging long-term and last 5 matches xG: long-term attacking xG is 1.65 for Cherno More and 1.22 for Arda, while in the last 5 matches attacking xG were 1.04 and 1.59 respectively; long-term xG conceded is 1.18 (Cherno More) and 1.40 (Arda), and in the last 5 matches xG conceded were 1.46 (Cherno More) and 1.05 (Arda). Averaging these values yields expected goals of 1.29 for the home side and 1.36 for the away side, a total of 2.65 goals. Under this assumption the model indicates roughly a 74% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 49% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5). Season-long stats support Over 1.5 – season Over1.5 is 56% for the home team and 65% for the away team, and Over0.5 occurred in 83% and 82% of matches, while Over2.5 (33%/35%) and Over3.5 (11%/24%) are less convincing, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

The most likely scenario is Cherno More leading at half-time and the home side winning the match (1/1). In their last five matches Cherno More were leading at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5) and score an average of 0.67 goals by half-time versus Arda’s 0.59; the home side’s xG is 1.65 compared to the visitors’ 1.22, indicating greater chance generation. Seasonal metrics confirm the home advantage: 1.61 points per game on average versus 1.29 for Arda, 44% wins versus 35%, and a lower average of goals conceded (0.78 vs 1.06), which increases the probability of holding a lead. At the same time Arda are dangerous after the break (on average 1.24 second-half goals vs 0.67 for the hosts) and have scored 5 goals in the 61–75 minute window and 5 in 76–90 (compared with 1 and 4 for the hosts), while Arda were level at half-time in 65% of matches, so X/X (22%) and 1/X (12%) scenarios remain plausible.