Cherno More vs Arda: match statistics
Cherno More vs Arda: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Cherno More play Arda in First League (Bulgaria). The match date is 25 May 2026 at 16:45. Venue: Stadion Ticha. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Cherno More: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Arda: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Cherno More scores 1.11 and concedes 0.94 goals per match. Arda scores 1.17 and concedes 0.94. League average: 2.30 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Cherno More 39%, Arda 28%. Over 2.5: Cherno More 39%, Arda 36%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
xG is very similar for both teams. Cherno More: 10.9 shots per match, Arda: 10.9.
Match halves
Cherno More: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.58. Arda: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
Cherno More: 76-90+ (10 goals). Arda: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First League: 2.30 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 1-2-0. Average goals 0.33, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I back the home win (1). Cherno More clearly creates more chances at home: average xG 1.59 versus Arda’s 1.22 and on average 12.24 shots per game versus 8.76, with 4.65 shots on target versus the visitors’ 3.59. The home defence also looks better — they concede 0.82 goals per home game versus Arda’s 1.06 conceded on the road, and the clean sheet rate is 59% versus the visitors’ 35%. In the last 5 matches Cherno More scored 5 goals and averaged 2.0 points per game (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Arda scored 7 goals and averaged 1.6 points per game (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), which gives a points advantage to the hosts. Arda has a higher shot conversion 13% versus the home side’s 9%, but the high share of goalless away matches 53% versus Cherno More’s 35% means the hosts’ defensive edge and chance creation prevail — I estimate probabilities of 55% for the home win, 25% for a draw and 20% for the away win.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Cherno More | Arda | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Arda is 43% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Cherno More · 2 pts / match - Arda
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Arda is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Cherno More · 1.17 goals / match - Arda
Cherno More scores in 67% of matches (24 of 36 matches), while Arda keeps a clean sheet in 42% (15 of 36 matches).
Arda scores in 53% of matches (19 of 36 matches), while Cherno More keeps a clean sheet in 50% (18 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Cherno More
Over / Under — Arda
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cherno More is 22% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / match - Cherno More · 1.28 pts / match - Arda
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cherno More - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Arda - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Cherno More
Arda
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First League).
Teams vs league
| Cherno More | Liga | Arda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.06 | 2.30 | ▼ 2.11 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 39% | 43% | ▼ 28% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 39% | 43% | ▼ 36% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 35% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | • 64% | 63% | • 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 64% | 74% | ▼ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Cherno More 1 - 2 - 0 Arda. Average goals 0.33, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Cherno More vs Arda?
The First League match finished Cherno More 2:3 Arda. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Cherno More and Arda?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Cherno More won 1, Arda won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 0.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Cherno More vs Arda?
Cherno More score 1.11 goals per game on average and Arda 1.17. The First League average is 2.30 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 39% of Cherno More's matches and 28% of Arda's.
What form are Cherno More and Arda in?
Over the last 5 games Cherno More have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Arda 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cherno More vs Arda?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.