Cherno More vs Botev Plovdiv: match statistics

Botev Plovdiv have scored 42 goals this season compared to Cherno More’s 34 and have netted 11 goals in their last 5 matches versus the hosts’ only 2, which strongly favors the visitors. In form, Botev have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 (averaging 2.0 points per game), while Cherno More have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (1.0 point per game) and have conceded 7 goals in that run. Home-match metrics show Cherno More create chances (avg xG 1.63 and 12.53 shots per game) but convert to only 1.0 goal per game with an 8% conversion rate, whereas Botev away have xG 1.39, 11 shots and average 1.5 goals. The visitors display better conversion (14% on the road) and a lower share of goalless matches (25% vs 40% for the hosts), although Cherno More at home concede slightly fewer goals (0.93 vs 1.13) and keep a clean sheet in 53% of matches, which will make Botev’s task harder. Considering the visitors’ 11 goals in the last 5, superior finishing and higher average points in form, I forecast a Botev Plovdiv victory.

The strongest signal points to No Goal — in the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS only 20% each, indicating that simultaneous scoring has been rare recently. Cherno More shows a clear drop in finishing: in the last 5 matches they averaged 0.4 goals (2 total), while Botev averaged 2.2 goals in the last 5 (11 total), so only the visitors represent a real offensive threat. Seasonal data are more balanced (BTTS 50% for both), but Botev has 44% clean sheets versus 19% for Cherno More, and season average goals conceded is 1.13 for Botev vs 1.31 for Cherno More, which increases the likelihood of a clean sheet for the guests. Additionally, Cherno More generates more xG (1.73 vs 1.39) and more shots (14.06 vs 11.0), yet converts only 8% compared to 14% for Botev, suggesting the hosts fail in finalization despite creating chances. Considering Cherno More’s poor finishing over the last 5 and Botev’s high share of clean sheets, I assign higher probability to the "No" scenario (25% for BTTS - Yes vs 75% for No).

xG and seasonal averages indicate 1.66 xG for Cherno More ((1.73 + 1.59)/2) and 1.42 xG for Botev ((1.39 + 1.45)/2), totaling 3.08 expected goals; for comparison, seasonal average goals scored are 1.13 for the home side and 1.5 for the visitors. Additionally, Botev has scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per match), while Cherno More has scored only 2 in that period (0.4 per match) and concedes 1.4 goals on average in the last 5, which increases the likelihood of a higher-scoring game. Seasonal percentages confirm the trend: both teams have 75% of matches over 1.5 goals, and the visitors have 69% of matches over 2.5 compared to 44% for the hosts, supporting Over 2.5. Although the visitors have 44% clean sheets on the season, their recent scoring form, higher shot conversion rate (14% vs 8%) and shots on target numbers (5.25 for hosts vs 4.19 for visitors) favor Over 2.5, hence the recommendation of Over 2.5 as the best line with an estimated probability of around 66%.

Statistics indicate that the most common half-time state is a draw: home teams led at the break in 19% of matches, away teams in 13%, while half-time draws occurred in 50–67% of cases (average 58.5%). By full-time the away side is the favourite — the season win percentage for away teams is 44% versus 31% for homes; in the last five matches the away team won 60% of games and averaged 2.2 goals, whereas the home team had 20% wins and 0.4 goals per match. Second-half figures further favour the visitors: average second-half points are 1.67 for away teams vs 1.13 for home teams, second-half win percentage 47% vs 25%, and in the last five matches away teams won the second half 60% of the time vs 0% for homes. Home teams generate more xG (1.73 vs 1.39) and shots (14.06 vs 11.0) but have poorer conversion (8% vs 14%) and in the last five matches scored only 0.2 goals on average by half-time versus 1.0 for away teams, which supports maintaining a draw at the break and a subsequent takeover of initiative by the visitors after the interval. On this basis the most probable and strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time draw at half-time and away win at full-time (X/2), therefore I have assigned the highest probability to that scenario.