Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs CSKA Sofia II: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II sit 2nd, while Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are seventh, and the visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches: four wins and one draw. The Sofia side have scored 13 goals during this period, more than twice as many as the hosts’ 6, and average 2 goals per away match. The visitors also create significantly more chances: they average 12.5 shots compared with Chernomorets’ 4, while their xG stands at 1.61 versus 0.93 for the hosts. However, Chernomorets have a 100% home win and clean-sheet record in the limited sample available so far, meaning a draw remains a realistic option. CSKA Sofia II’s superior current finishing, greater possession control (56% to 43%) and attacking potential nevertheless point towards an away win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the fact that Chernomorets have seen both teams score in 100% of their current home matches, while CSKA Sofia II have recorded the same outcome in 50% of their away appearances. In the last five matches, both teams achieved a BTTS rate of 60%, with the hosts averaging 1.2 goals and the visitors as many as 2.6. Chernomorets have kept no clean sheets in any home match and conceded an average of 3.0 goals there, significantly increasing the likelihood of a successful away attack. CSKA Sofia II do have a 50% clean-sheet rate away from home, but they allow an average xG of 1.53, while the hosts create xG 1.89 at home and average 7.0 shots on target. The biggest risk to the BTTS pick is the visitors’ defence, but the hosts’ advantage in chance creation and Chernomorets’ defensive weakness make a scenario with goals from both sides more likely.

The Over 1.5 goals line has the strongest statistical support, as both teams have gone over it in 100% of their league matches to date. CSKA Sofia II are in excellent offensive form, averaging 2.6 goals scored over their last 5 matches, with an average xG of 1.95. During the same period, Chernomorets scored only 1.2 goals per game, but their opponents allow an average xG of 1.56, giving the hosts a realistic path to scoring. The projected total of 2.76 goals is close to the league average of 2.81, while 60% of each team’s recent matches ended with both sides scoring. Over 2.5 remains moderately attractive, but Over 1.5 offers a stronger edge and lower risk.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA Sofia II win at full-time (X/2). In their last five matches, Chernomorets were level at the break in 60% of games, while CSKA recorded a half-time draw in 40%, with the hosts’ attacking output before the break particularly low at just 0.2 goals per match. The visitors are, however, clearly more effective over the full 90 minutes: they won 80% of their last five matches, averaged 2.6 goals per game, and remained unbeaten, whereas the hosts won 40% of their matches and scored 1.2 goals on average. After half-time, CSKA average 2.0 goals, and their goal difference in this period across their last five matches stands at +8, supporting a turnaround in the visitors’ favour after an evenly balanced first half.