Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Spartak Pleven: match statistics

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas sit higher in the table, in 7th place compared with Spartak Pleven’s 13th, and have also won 2 of their last 5 matches, suffering just one fewer defeat than their opponents. The hosts win 67% of their home matches and concede just 0.33 goals per game, keeping a clean sheet in 67% of their fixtures. Away from home, Spartak concede an average of as many as 2.5 goals, have a -5 goal difference and have won only 25% of such matches. Although the visitors create slightly more attacking quality than the hosts, with an xG of 1.21 compared with 1.06, their recent run of 4 defeats in 5 matches and 13 goals conceded during that period clearly reduces their chances. Chernomorets’ defensive advantage and Spartak’s struggles away from home point to a moderately likely home win.

The BTTS - No signal is primarily strengthened by Chernomorets’ current form: in only 20% of their last 5 matches did both teams score, while the hosts conceded just 0.8 goals on average. Spartak scored only 0.8 goals per game during this period and lost 4 of their last 5 matches, which limits their attacking reliability. Although Chernomorets have yet to keep a clean sheet this season, Spartak have recorded 25% of matches without conceding, while the league-wide percentage of matches in which both sides score is only 47%. The hosts should create more chances, averaging 11.5 shots compared with their opponents’ 9.25 and posting a higher xG of 1.48 versus 1.21. However, the more likely scenario is that at least one team—particularly Spartak—fails to find the net.

Chernomorets score an average of 1.25 goals, while Spartak concede as many as 2.50 goals per match, clearly strengthening the hosts’ scoring potential. This is supported by the xG figures: the hosts create chances worth 1.48 goals, whereas the visitors allow opponents 1.70 xG. Over 1.5 goals were scored in 75% of Chernomorets’ matches and in all of Spartak’s games, while for the 2.5 line, the figures are 50% and 75%, respectively. Spartak have conceded 13 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.6 per game, although their own attacking output has dropped to 0.8 goals. The projected total of 2.70 goals gives the strongest edge to Over 1.5 goals, as just two goals are well supported by the visitors’ weak defence and the regularity of matches featuring at least two goals.

Chernomorets have the clearer potential to make the stronger start: in their last five matches, they led at the break in 40% of cases, while Spartak have not led at half-time once and went into the interval trailing in as many as 60% of their matches. Over this period, the hosts averaged 0.8 goals before half-time and conceded just 0.4, whereas the visitors scored 0.4 and allowed opponents to score 1.2. Chernomorets’ advantage is also evident over the full match: the team has averaged 1.4 points per game across their last five fixtures, compared with just 0.6 for Spartak, who lost 80% of those appearances. The visitors’ defence is particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.6 goals in their last five matches, compared with 0.8 for the hosts. The scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle is therefore the most strongly supported by the data, although Spartak’s high average of 1.8 goals after the break increases the risk of a late turnaround or at least a late fightback.