Chertsey Town vs Malvern Town: match statistics

Chertsey Town have a clearly superior season record: they have won 3 of 6 matches, while Malvern Town are still without a victory and have lost 4 of their 6 games. At home, the hosts score an average of 2.00 goals per match with 55% possession, whereas the visitors concede as many as 3.00 goals per away game. Malvern’s form is very poor, having collected just 1 point, scored 4 goals and conceded 14 in their last five matches. Chertsey are also far from convincing defensively, conceding an average of 1.33 goals at home and failing to keep a clean sheet, but their xG against stands at 0.99 compared with 1.61 for Malvern’s defence. The visitors are capable of creating chances, as shown by their away xG of 1.57, so a goal for them is realistic. However, the hosts’ advantage in finishing, results and home conditions points towards a “1”.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 67%, above the league average of 56%, indicating regular matches with goals at both ends. Chertsey Town have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in every one of those games. Malvern Town have scored just 0.8 goals on average in their last 5 outings, but their opponents conceded 2.0 goals per match during this period. The defences also look weak over the broader sample: the home side concede 2.33 goals per match, while the visitors concede as many as 3.0, with Malvern keeping a clean sheet in only 33% of matches. The main risk to the pick is the visitors’ limited recent attacking output, but their seasonal average of 1.33 goals scored and Chertsey’s highly vulnerable defence support a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Chertsey Town have averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Malvern Town have conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game over the same period, clearly increasing the hosts’ attacking potential. The visitors have scored just 0.8 goals per game in their recent run, but Chertsey’s defence has conceded an average of 2.0 goals, making a Malvern goal a realistic possibility as well. At least 3 goals were scored in 4 of the last 5 matches for each team, and both sides have also recorded Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their matches. In addition, Chertsey have exceeded the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their games this season, compared with 67% for Malvern, making Over 1.5 goals the safest and most strongly supported selection.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Chertsey Town win after the match, as Malvern Town have been level at the break in all three of their matches so far this season and did so in 40% of their recent games. The first halves of both teams are very evenly matched: each averages 0.67 goals scored and conceded before the break, which supports the X outcome after 45 minutes. After the interval, however, the advantage shifts to the hosts: across their last five appearances, they have averaged 1.25 goals, while Malvern have scored just 0.20. The visitors are particularly vulnerable defensively after half-time, conceding an average of 2.40 goals in their last five matches; overall, they lost 80% of those games and recorded no wins. Chertsey are in better current form, averaging 1.4 points per match with a 40% win rate in their last five appearances, compared with Malvern’s 0.2 points and 0% win rate, so they should turn an evenly matched start in their favour.