Chertsey Town vs Poole Town: match statistics

Chertsey Town are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws while scoring 13 goals during that run, whereas Poole Town have won 3 of their last 5 games but have also suffered 2 defeats. At home, the hosts average 2.75 goals per match compared with Poole Town’s away average of just 1.50, and they have not failed to score in any home fixture. Chertsey’s advantage is also evident in their control of the game: they average 55% possession, compared with their opponents’ 49%, while their defence allows chances worth 0.99 xG, compared with the 1.26 xG conceded by the visitors. Poole Town can be dangerous, as shown by their 6 shots on target per away match and a 75% win rate at this venue, but their average of 1.25 goals conceded per game may not be enough to contain the hosts’ in-form attack. An open game is expected, but Chertsey’s more consistent run and significantly greater home efficiency point towards a narrow home win.

Recent form clearly supports goals at both ends: Chertsey Town recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Poole Town did so in 60%. During this period, the hosts averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, whereas the visitors scored and conceded 1.4 goals per game. The xG figures from the last five appearances are also similar and exceed one goal offensively, standing at 1.02 for Chertsey and 1.10 for Poole. The main risk to this pick is the hosts’ weaker full-season record: they averaged only 0.67 goals scored and failed to score in 67% of their matches. However, their current attacking efficiency significantly improves the outlook for BTTS - Yes. Poole Town averaged 1.50 goals per game this season, while Chertsey conceded 1.33, making the most likely scenario a goal for both teams.

Recent form points to a goal-filled match: Chertsey averaged 2.6 goals in their previous five games, while Poole averaged 1.4, with an average of 3.8 goals in home matches and 2.8 in away matches. This is supported by the high rates of at least three goals in this series, standing at 80% and 60% respectively, although full-season data under these conditions is noticeably more cautious. Chertsey score only 0.67 goals per home game, while Poole concede an average of 1.25 away from home; moreover, none of Chertsey’s home matches exceeded four goals, as was also the case in 75% of Poole’s away fixtures. The projected total of 2.77 goals supports the possibility of a scoreline around 2:1 or 1:2, but limits the likelihood of a highly open game, making Under 3.5 goals the preferred option.

Chertsey Town are in clearly better current form: they have averaged 2.6 goals and remained unbeaten in their last five matches, while Poole Town have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game and lost 40% of their fixtures during that period. The hosts held a lead at the break in 67% of their recent matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time, compared with 0.4 goals for Poole Town. After the break, Chertsey increase the tempo, averaging 2.0 goals across their last five matches, while the visitors concede an average of 1.2 goals during that period. Although Poole have a better season-long points tally, the hosts’ current form and strength in both halves most strongly support the HT/FT scenario of Chertsey leading at half-time and securing the win at full-time (1/1).