Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi: match statistics

Ratchaburi is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd in the table with 16 wins this season, while Chiangrai are 8th with 7 wins. Form confirms the edge — Ratchaburi have 3 wins and 2 draws (0 losses) in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.2 points per game, whereas Chiangrai have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.0 point. Ratchaburi have scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches versus Chiangrai’s 6, and their shot conversion is 18% compared to 9% for the hosts, giving the visitors a clear attacking advantage. Away, Ratchaburi average 2.08 goals with 11.46 shots and 54% possession; Chiangrai at home average 1.08 goals with 11.54 shots and 45% possession. xG for both teams is nearly identical (1.36 vs 1.35), so efficiency is the differentiator. Defensively the hosts concede 1.00 goal at home with 38% clean sheets, while Ratchaburi concede 1.23 goals away and have only 15% clean sheets; combined with a higher average total goals in the visitors’ matches (3.31 vs 2.08) this suggests an open game and a higher probability of a Ratchaburi win.

I back BTTS - Yes because Ratchaburi posts a seasonal goals-per-game average of 2.08 (48 goals this season) and a season BTTS rate of 69%, with BTTS in the last 5 matches at 100% (12 scored, 7 conceded). Chiangrai averages 1.5 goals per home game and has a season BTTS of 50%, with BTTS in the last 5 matches at 80% and a record of 6–6 (avg. 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded). xG metrics show Chiangrai with avg. xG for 1.44 and xG against 1.37, while Ratchaburi has avg. xG for 1.36 and xG against 1.73, jointly indicating two-way scoring opportunities. Additionally, Ratchaburi has only 15% clean sheets this season versus Chiangrai’s 43%, and the league has a season BTTS level of 56% with an average of 2.67 goals, all supporting the Goal/Goal scenario. Considering the 100% and 80% BTTS in the last 5 and the seasonal 69% vs 50%, I assign 80% probability to Yes and 20% to No.

xG analysis yields a combined expected goals total of approximately 2.96: Chiangrai’s attacking xG is 1.44 versus Ratchaburi’s defensive xG of 1.73 (expected 1.59 for the home side), while Ratchaburi’s attacking xG is 1.36 versus Chiangrai’s defensive xG of 1.37 (expected 1.37 for the away side). Seasonal averages are 1.5 goals for Chiangrai and 2.08 for Ratchaburi, and in the last 5 matches Ratchaburi averaged 2.4 goals and had 100% of games over 2.5 goals. Season-long over shares show 43% Over 2.5 for the home team and 69% for the away team, with BTTS 50% for Chiangrai and 69% for Ratchaburi, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Additionally, the visitors have higher shot conversion (18% vs 12%) and their matches averaged 3.8 goals in the last 5, therefore I estimate Over 1.5 at 80%, Over 2.5 at 72% and Over 3.5 at 43%. The strongest signal is Over 2.5: expected 2.96 goals, the away form (last5 Over 2.5 = 100%) and Ratchaburi’s high conversion rate give an edge for backing the Over 2.5 line.

Ratchaburi appears to be the favorite for the Full-Time result: they have a 69% away win rate and average 2.08 goals per game compared to Chiangrai’s 1.5. At Half-Time the situation is more balanced — Chiangrai led at the break in 43% of home matches, but draws occur frequently (29% for hosts and 46% for guests), which together suggests roughly a 40% chance of a HT draw. The visitors score early (4 goals in minutes 0–15 versus 1 for the hosts) and are more dangerous after the break: Ratchaburi average 1.31 second-half goals and have 100% of matches with over 0.5 goals after the break, with second-half wins occurring in 69% of their matches. Despite similar xG (1.44 for Chiangrai vs 1.36 for Ratchaburi), the visitors convert chances more efficiently (conversion rate 18% vs 12%) and have better form in the last 5 matches (visitors 60% wins vs hosts 20%), so the most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and a Ratchaburi Full-Time victory (X/2, 24%).