Chicago Fire vs Charlotte: match statistics

Chicago Fire possess a clear home advantage in key metrics: they have won 63% of home matches and average 2.0 goals per game with an average xG of 1.89, whereas Charlotte scores only 1.14 goals away with an xG of 1.03. The hosts generate significantly more shots (17.5 per game) and more on-target attempts (5.63) than Charlotte (7.86 shots and 3.29 on target), although the visitors display a higher shot conversion rate of 15% versus 11% for the hosts — indicating Charlotte is more efficient but creates fewer chances. Defensively, Chicago concedes 1.13 goals at home on average and keeps 50% clean sheets, while Charlotte concedes 2.0 goals away and has only 14% clean sheets; additionally, the visitors record a 57% loss rate on the road. In form trends, Chicago scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches and averages 1.8 points per game in that period, while Charlotte scored 8 goals and averages 2.0 points per game, so the visitors have a slightly better recent points return, but that does not offset the hosts’ superiority in chance creation. Considering the xG advantage (1.89 vs 1.03), the shot volume and the fact Chicago has never finished a home game scoreless (0% such matches), I back the home win.

I back BTTS - Yes. Chicago has a seasonal BTTS rate of 70% and 80% in the last 5 matches, scoring 2.0 goals per home match (xG 1.62) with 6.0 shots on target. Charlotte's seasonal BTTS is 57% and they score 1.14 goals per match (xG 1.03), while conceding 2.0 goals per match (xG against 1.99), which increases the likelihood that the hosts will find the net. In the last 5 fixtures Charlotte conceded a total of 4 goals (0.8 per match), suggesting defensive improvement, but their seasonal clean sheet rate is only 14% and Chicago's is 20%, meaning both teams rarely keep a clean sheet. Additionally the league shows 60% BTTS occurrence and an average of 3.24 goals per match, and Chicago at home has over 2.5 and over2.5+BTTS at 70%, which further supports the both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering the hosts' offensive metrics (2.0 goals, xG 1.62, 6.0 shots on target) and Charlotte's seasonal susceptibility to conceding (2.0 conceded per match), I estimate BTTS probability at approximately 72% vs 28% for No Goal.

Chicago Fire average 2.0 goals scored per match while Charlotte concedes 2.0 goals per match, providing a clear goal-side impetus. Chicago’s xG is 1.62, whereas Charlotte allows opponents 1.99 xG — the average of these values suggests about 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Charlotte has xG 1.03 and against Chicago the hosts record xG against 1.3, yielding roughly 1.12 expected goals for the visitors; the sum of projected goals is ~2.92 (1.80+1.12). Season Over 1.5 rates are 70% for Chicago and 86% for Charlotte (average 78%), and Over 2.5 is 70%/57% (average ~63%), therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5. Additionally, Chicago averages 6.0 shots on target versus Charlotte’s 3.29, and BTTS is 70%/57%, which confirms a propensity for goals and supports Over 1.5 as the optimal line to play.

The most likely scenario is 1/1 — Chicago leads at the break and wins the match. Chicago led at the break in 50% of their home matches, whereas Charlotte held a lead at the break in only 14% of their away fixtures, giving the home side the advantage in the first half. The hosts possess a clear attacking superiority: xG 1.62 versus 1.03 for the opposition, on average 6.0 shots on target versus 3.29 and an average of 2.0 goals scored per match versus Charlotte’s 1.14. After the break Chicago performs better in points and shooting (17 points and an average of 1.7 points per match in second halves vs 6 points and 0.86 for Charlotte, and 1.2 goals scored after the break vs 0.57 for the visitors), so maintaining or extending the lead is likely. In my projection the 1/1 scenario carries the highest weight (around 39%), while turnaround scenarios in favor of Charlotte are assessed as less probable.