Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati: match statistics
Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Chicago Fire played FC Cincinnati in MLS (United States). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Chicago Fire: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. FC Cincinnati: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Chicago Fire scores 1.89 and concedes 0.89 goals per match. FC Cincinnati scores 1.90 and concedes 2.30. League average: 3.20 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Chicago Fire 44%, FC Cincinnati 60%. Over 2.5: Chicago Fire 67%, FC Cincinnati 50%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
FC Cincinnati has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.49. Chicago Fire: 13.3 shots per match, FC Cincinnati: 14.2.
Match halves
Chicago Fire: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 1.11. FC Cincinnati: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 1.20.
Goals by minute
Chicago Fire: 76-90+ (5 goals). FC Cincinnati: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS: 3.20 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 6.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Chicago Fire to win. At home Fire win 80% of matches, score an average of 2.2 goals per game and concede only 0.4 goals with 80% clean sheets, and their home xG is 1.69 versus 1.23 xG against, indicating control and efficiency in home fixtures. FC Cincinnati away have a 0% win rate, 60% losses and concede an average of 3.2 goals per game, with an away xG against of 1.82, signaling clear defensive issues on the road. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 12 goals, but Chicago have 3 wins and 2.0 points per game in that period versus 1.2 points per game for the away side, so the home advantage in defense and form is decisive.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I forecast BTTS - Yes because FC Cincinnati has a season BTTS of 80% and 80% in the last 5 matches, with 0% clean sheets and conceding an average of 3.2 goals per game. Chicago Fire scores on average 2.2 goals in the season and 2.4 in the last 5, while conceding 1.4 in the season and 1.2 in the last 5, which shows they can score but also concede (seasonal BTTS 40%, last 5 – 60%). Both teams have similar attacking xG: 1.63 for Chicago vs 1.52 for Cincinnati, and xG against of 1.63 vs 1.82, indicating both sides create and allow chances. In the league BTTS occurs in 57% of matches and the average goals per game is 3.23, so open play and goals from both sides are statistically common. Considering Cincinnati’s 80% season BTTS and 0% away clean sheets and Chicago’s 2.2 average goals scored, I assess the probability of BTTS at around 80% and No Goal at 20%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a significant probability of Over 2.5 goals: Chicago Fire averages 2.2 goals per game while FC Cincinnati concedes 3.2 on average, creating a clear goal incentive. Combining xG 1.63 (Chicago) and xG against 1.82 (Cincinnati) yields an expected 1.73 goals for the home side, while 1.52 (Cincinnati xG) with 1.63 (xG against Chicago) yields 1.58 for the visitors; the combined expected total is 3.31 goals. Both teams have 80% of matches over 1.5 goals this season, and in the last 5 fixtures Chicago has 80% of games over 2.5 (12 scored, 6 conceded), while FC Cincinnati has 60% (12 scored, 12 conceded), which supports the pricing of Over 2.5. Additionally, the league average is 3.23 goals per game, and shots on target 5.4 vs 5.8 with conversion rates 14% vs 13% suggest meaningful scoring opportunities for both sides; therefore I recommend Over 2.5 as the best line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Chicago Fire holds a clear edge: they average 2.2 goals per game versus 1.6 for FC Cincinnati, and hosts collect 2.0 points per home match compared to 0.4 points on the road for Cincinnati, with a season win rate of 60% for Chicago versus 0% for the visitors. At half-time the hosts average 0.8 goals versus 0.6 for the guests and have scored 4 goals in the 31–45 minute window compared to 1 for Cincinnati; additionally, in the last 5 matches Chicago led at the break in 60% of games and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 60% of cases. After the break the metrics also favor Chicago: visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals in the second half versus 0.6 for the hosts, and xG shows a small but existent advantage for Chicago (1.63 vs 1.52). Therefore the most likely scenario is Chicago leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1) — I assign it a 36% probability; alternatively, a half-time draw and a home win (X/1) is realistic at 22% and a half-time draw and full-time draw (X/X) at 20%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Chicago Fire | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Chicago Fire is 117% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Chicago Fire · 1.2 pts / match - FC Cincinnati
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Chicago Fire is 158% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.89 goals / match - Chicago Fire · 2.3 goals / match - FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while FC Cincinnati keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 matches).
FC Cincinnati scores in 80% of matches (8 of 10 matches), while Chicago Fire keeps a clean sheet in 56% (5 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Chicago Fire
Over / Under - FC Cincinnati
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Chicago Fire is 164% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.11 pts / match - Chicago Fire · 0.8 pts / match - FC Cincinnati
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Chicago Fire - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
FC Cincinnati - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS).
Teams vs league
| Chicago Fire | Liga | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.78 | 3.20 | ▲ 4.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 58% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 61% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 56% | 24% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 74% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 77% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Chicago Fire 0 - 1 - 0 FC Cincinnati. Average goals 6.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?
The MLS match finished Chicago Fire 2:3 FC Cincinnati. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?
Chicago Fire score 1.89 goals per game on average and FC Cincinnati 1.90. The MLS average is 3.20 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Chicago Fire's matches and 60% of FC Cincinnati's.
What form are Chicago Fire and FC Cincinnati in?
Over the last 5 games Chicago Fire have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and FC Cincinnati 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.