Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC: match statistics
Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Chicago Fire played Nashville SC in MLS (United States). The match was played on 5 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Chicago Fire: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Nashville SC: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Chicago Fire scores 1.40 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Nashville SC scores 2.60 and concedes 0.40. League average: 3.12 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Chicago Fire 60%, Nashville SC 40%. Over 2.5: Chicago Fire 80%, Nashville SC 60%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Nashville SC has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.39. Chicago Fire: 11.4 shots per match, Nashville SC: 12.6.
Match halves
Chicago Fire: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.80. Nashville SC: half-time lead 60%, second-half goals 1.20.
Goals by minute
Chicago Fire: 76-90+ (3 goals). Nashville SC: 16-30 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS: 3.12 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win: Chicago Fire hold a clear advantage in chance creation — on average 16 shots and 6.5 on target per home match with xG 1.86, compared to just 7.5 shots and 2.5 on target and xG 0.84 for Nashville away. The hosts average 2.0 goals per home game and have yet to register a match without a goal (0% of matches without scoring), while Nashville score 0.5 goals on average away and have 50% of away matches without a goal. Nashville’s season record (4W, 1D, 0L) and 2.2 points per match over the last five fixtures versus Chicago’s 1.4 raise the draw risk, and their defense has conceded only 2 goals this season. Considering Chicago’s superiority in quality of chances (xG 1.86 vs 0.84), better shot conversion (13% vs 7%) and their 2.0 home goals average, I assess their win probability at 60%, draw 25% and away win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because Chicago creates significantly more danger: on average 16 shots and 7.33 on target per game with xG 1.79 versus Nashville (7.5 shots, 2.5 on target, xG 0.84), which strongly supports a home goal. Nashville has averaged 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches (10 goals in 5), so they can score despite mixed season metrics; in those five games they conceded 0.4 goals on average. Seasonal metrics are mixed: Chicago has 67% home BTTS and 100% of matches over 2.5 goals, while Nashville’s season data shows 0% BTTS and 100% away clean sheets, which conflicts with their recent form. xG analysis (Chicago xG_for 1.79 vs Nashville xG_against 0.96 and Nashville xG_for 0.84 vs Chicago xG_against 0.94) and recent scoring figures suggest an exchange of goals is more likely, hence a 65% Yes / 35% No assessment.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG-based model: Chicago has xG_for 1.79 versus Nashville’s away xG_against 0.96, yielding expected home goals ≈1.38; for Nashville xG_for 0.84 versus home xG_against 0.94 yields ≈0.89, total = 2.27. From a Poisson distribution with λ=2.27 we get probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) ≈66%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) ≈40% and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) ≈19%. Additionally, Chicago at home seasonally scores on average 4.0 goals, averages 16 shots with 7.33 on target and has a 25% conversion rate, and seasonOver25Percentage_home is 100% — these offensive metrics strengthen the signal for Over, especially on the lower lines. Nashville away has a weaker attack: xG_for 0.84, only 2.5 shots on target and a 7% conversion, which limits their goal-creating ability. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, with the above estimates (Over1.5 66%, Over2.5 40%, Over3.5 19%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Chicago Fire led at the break in 3 of 3 home matches (100%) and averaged 2.33 goals scored in the first half versus 0.33 conceded, while Nashville have yet to score at the break on the road (0.0). The hosts generate more xG — 1.79 compared to the visitors’ 0.84 — take more shots (16.0 vs 7.5 on average) and more shots on target (7.33 vs 2.5), and the hosts’ shot conversion is 25% versus Nashville’s 7%. Chicago average 3.0 points per home match and have a 100% home win rate, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead to full-time. Therefore the scenario HT/FT home lead and home win (1/1) is assessed as the strongest (55%), with a moderate probability for 1/X (12%) and a low probability for 1/2 (5%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Chicago Fire | Nashville SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nashville SC is 86% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Chicago Fire · 2.6 pts / match - Nashville SC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nashville SC is 86% better for: goals scored per match.
1.4 goals / match - Chicago Fire · 2.6 goals / match - Nashville SC
Nashville SC is 150% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Chicago Fire · 0.4 goals / match - Nashville SC
Chicago Fire scores in 80% of matches (4 of 5 matches), while Nashville SC keeps a clean sheet in 60% (3 of 5 matches).
Nashville SC scores in 80% of matches (4 of 5 matches), while Chicago Fire keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Chicago Fire
Over / Under - Nashville SC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nashville SC is 22% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.8 pts / match - Chicago Fire · 2.2 pts / match - Nashville SC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Chicago Fire - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nashville SC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 60% of matches and wins 80%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS).
Teams vs league
| Chicago Fire | Liga | Nashville SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.40 | 3.12 | ▼ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 54% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 80% | 63% | ▼ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 27% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 60% | 72% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 83% | ▼ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC?
The MLS match finished Chicago Fire 1:0 Nashville SC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC?
Chicago Fire score 1.40 goals per game on average and Nashville SC 2.60. The MLS average is 3.12 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Chicago Fire's matches and 40% of Nashville SC's.
What form are Chicago Fire and Nashville SC in?
Over the last 5 games Chicago Fire have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Nashville SC 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC?
The statistical background for Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.