Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution: match statistics

Chicago Fire have a clear home advantage: they win 70% of their home matches, score an average of 2.00 goals at home, and have not been held scoreless. New England Revolution win only 27% of their away matches, lose 55%, and concede an average of 1.64 goals per game. The hosts also create slightly better chances, recording a home xG of 1.76 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.66, while also registering more shots: 16.2 to 14.55. Chicago’s recent form has been less convincing, however, with three draws in their last five appearances, so the risk of a share of the points remains significant. The Revs’ defence has improved over their last five matches, conceding 6 goals, but only 9% of their away games end with a clean sheet, which strengthens the case for a Chicago win with goals.

The signal for both sides to score is clear: BTTS occurred in 73% of New England Revolution matches and 50% of Chicago Fire games, compared with a league average of 63%. Current form further supports this selection, as Chicago recorded BTTS in 5 of their last 5 matches, while New England did so in 4 of 5. During this period, the hosts scored and conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match, whereas the visitors averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. New England have recently created chances worth 2.25 xG, while Chicago allow opponents 1.43 xG, strengthening the visitors’ chances of scoring. Chicago do have a 33% clean-sheet rate this season, but New England have kept a clean sheet in only 9% of matches, and the hosts average 1.83 goals at home. Therefore, a scenario with a goal for each team is more likely.

The signal for at least two goals is very strong: Chicago score an average of 1.83 goals at home, while New England concede 1.64 away from home. In their last five matches, Chicago scored 10 and conceded 10 goals, while New England netted 9, confirming the elevated scoring potential of both sides. Over 1.5 goals landed in 75% of Chicago’s matches and 82% of New England’s, while the 2.5 line was covered in as many as 80% of the teams’ last five matches. The visitors generate an average of 1.66 xG per match and record 5.18 shots on target, so they should make a significant contribution to the total despite the hosts conceding only 0.92 goals per game this season. Over 1.5 has the highest probability, as even with lower-than-expected finishing efficiency, the data clearly points to a minimum of two goals.

Chicago Fire have won 67% of their matches this season, averaging 1.83 goals scored and conceding just 0.92, while New England Revolution lose 55% of their games and allow opponents to score 1.64 goals per match. The home side’s advantage is already evident before half-time: Chicago have led at the break in 33% of their appearances, while the visitors have gone into the interval behind in as many as 55% of cases. New England do create more chances, with an average xG of 1.66 compared with Chicago’s 1.36, but convert their shots into goals at a rate of only 9%, versus 17% for the hosts. After the break, Chicago score an average of 1.08 goals and concede just 0.25, strongly supporting the preservation of any lead. The visitors’ better recent form limits the extent of the advantage, but the most likely scenario remains Chicago leading at half-time and securing victory by the final whistle.