Chicago Fire vs Toronto: match statistics
Chicago Fire vs Toronto: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Chicago Fire played Toronto in MLS (United States). The match was played on 24 May 2026. Venue: Soldier Field. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Chicago Fire: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Toronto: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Chicago Fire scores 1.92 and concedes 1.15 goals per match. Toronto scores 1.62 and concedes 2.08. League average: 3.28 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Chicago Fire 54%, Toronto 85%. Over 2.5: Chicago Fire 69%, Toronto 69%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
Chicago Fire has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.40. Chicago Fire: 14.8 shots per match, Toronto: 11.9.
Match halves
Chicago Fire: half-time lead 46%, second-half goals 1.15. Toronto: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 1.31.
Goals by minute
Chicago Fire: 76-90+ (7 goals). Toronto: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS: 3.28 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Chicago Fire are favorites at home: hosts average 2.00 goals per home match, have average xG 1.92 and record 17.86 shots per game, of which 5.57 are on target, while Toronto away manage only 1.00 goal, xG 1.21 and 10.25 shots. Defensively the hosts also look superior — Chicago concede 1.14 goals per home match and have 57% of matches with a clean sheet, whereas Toronto concede 2.25 goals away and keep a clean sheet in only 25% of games. In current form the gap is clear: in the last 5 matches Chicago scored 9 goals and average 1.2 points per game, while Toronto scored 6 goals and average just 0.2 points per game over the same period — the visitors are without a win in their last 5 (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Additionally the hosts have 0% of home matches without scoring this season (always score), and shot conversion is 11% versus the guests’ 10%; these figures, together with the xG advantage and higher number of shots on target, point to a Chicago victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The BTTS signal is strong: Chicago has 100% BTTS this season and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Toronto has 50% BTTS this season and 100% in the last 5. Both teams concede frequently — Chicago averages 2.0 goals conceded per game this season (1.8 in the last 5), Toronto 2.25 this season (2.6 in the last 5) — which significantly increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Chicago scores 1.89 goals per game this season with xG 1.48 and 5.0 shots on target, Toronto has 1.0 goals with xG 1.21 and 4.0 shots on target; additionally the league averages 3.26 goals per game, and Over2.5 is 67% for Chicago and 75% for Toronto, which supports a goal-heavy scenario. Chicago has not kept a single clean sheet this season (0% CS) versus Toronto’s 25%, so the BTTS - Yes outcome is clearly more likely than a No Goal/clean sheet from one side.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project a total of 2.71 goals (Chicago 1.47 vs Toronto 1.24), calculated as the average of home attack xG 1.48 and away defense xG 1.46, and away attack xG 1.21 and home defense xG 1.27. This provides a clear cushion above the 1.5 line: Chicago score 1.89 goals at home on average and have 100% of matches >1.5, while Toronto have 75% of matches >1.5, so Over 1.5 goals is highly probable. The 2.5 line is also supported by statistics — seasonally Over 2.5 occurred in 67% of Chicago’s matches and 75% of Toronto’s, and in the last 5 fixtures both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 80% — however the projected xG of 2.71 only marginally exceeds 2.5. Over 3.5 looks less certain: season-long Over 3.5 is 44% for Chicago and 50% for Toronto, and the projected 2.71 xG remains below 3.5, therefore Under 3.5 has the edge. Considering higher average shots (Chicago 12.67 vs Toronto 10.25), shots on target (5.0 vs 4.0) and a high BTTS rate for the home side (100%), I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest and most data-driven signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time I expect a draw: Chicago averages only 0.22 goals by the break, Toronto 0.5, and the home side has 44% of matches level at half-time. After the break the advantage shifts to the hosts — Chicago averages 1.67 goals after half-time versus 0.5 for Toronto, and the combined average xG is 1.48 for Chicago vs 1.21 for Toronto. Additionally, Chicago records an average of 5.0 shots on target compared to 4.0 for Toronto and has a higher shot conversion rate (15% vs 10%), which increases the likelihood of goals in the second half. Toronto are in poor away form (0% wins in their last five away matches and an average of 0.2 points per game in that period), so it is more likely the hosts will win the match after a draw at half-time.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Chicago Fire | Toronto | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Chicago Fire is 350% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Chicago Fire · 0.4 pts / match - Toronto
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Chicago Fire is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.92 goals / match - Chicago Fire · 1.62 goals / match - Toronto
Chicago Fire is 81% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.15 goals / match - Chicago Fire · 2.08 goals / match - Toronto
Chicago Fire scores in 92% of matches (12 of 13 matches), while Toronto keeps a clean sheet in 8% (1 of 13 matches).
Toronto scores in 92% of matches (12 of 13 matches), while Chicago Fire keeps a clean sheet in 46% (6 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Chicago Fire
Over / Under - Toronto
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Chicago Fire is 185% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.77 pts / match - Chicago Fire · 0.62 pts / match - Toronto
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Chicago Fire - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 46% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Toronto - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Chicago Fire
Toronto
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS).
Teams vs league
| Chicago Fire | Liga | Toronto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.08 | 3.28 | ▲ 3.69 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 54% | 61% | ▲ 85% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 62% | ▲ 69% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 46% | 22% | ▼ 8% |
| Goal before half-time | • 77% | 77% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 81% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Chicago Fire vs Toronto?
The MLS match finished Chicago Fire 2:1 Toronto. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Chicago Fire vs Toronto?
Chicago Fire score 1.92 goals per game on average and Toronto 1.62. The MLS average is 3.28 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 54% of Chicago Fire's matches and 85% of Toronto's.
What form are Chicago Fire and Toronto in?
Over the last 5 games Chicago Fire have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Toronto 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Chicago Fire vs Toronto?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Chicago Fire vs Toronto: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.