Chichester City vs Havant & Waterlooville: match statistics

Chichester City have a clearly superior record over their last five matches: they have collected 7 points from 2 wins and a draw, while Havant & Waterlooville have managed just 3 points and suffered 4 defeats. The hosts average 2.5 goals per home game and have not been held scoreless, whereas the visitors score just 0.5 goals per away match and failed to score in 50% of their outings. Havant & Waterlooville have lost both of their away matches to date, conceding an average of 2 goals per game and keeping no clean sheets. Chichester also enjoy greater possession, 55% compared with 41%, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents chances worth an average of 1.70 xG, which favours the hosts. Although Chichester’s home xG stands at just 0.98, home advantage and the visitors’ poor finishing make a home win the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Chichester City kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while Havant & Waterlooville failed to score in 50% of games. The visitors average just 0.5 goals per match, with their average standing at only 0.6 goals across their last five appearances, despite allowing opponents plenty of chances. BTTS occurred in 0% of the hosts’ matches this season, while the figure for both teams across their last five games stands at 40%, below the league average of 50%. Chichester do create plenty of chances, averaging 18 shots with an xG of 1.92, while Havant’s defence concedes an average of 2.0 goals, making a home goal and at least one team failing to score the most likely scenario. The visitors’ high 1.60 xG across their last five matches limits confidence in the pick, but their poor finishing still tilts the forecast towards BTTS - No.

Chichester City’s latest form points to 1.6 goals scored per match across their last five games, while Havant & Waterlooville have conceded as many as 1.8 goals over the same period. The hosts consistently create chances, averaging 18 shots and recording a season xG of 1.92, while the visitors’ defence allows an average xG of 1.70. Havant & Waterlooville also have an xG of 1.60 across their last five matches, so they should contribute to a total of at least two goals. The Over 1.5 goals line has an edge, as all of the visitors’ matches to date and 50% of the hosts’ games have gone above this threshold, while the projected total of 2.75 goals is clearly higher. Caution is advised with higher lines, as neither team has yet been involved in a match featuring more than 3 goals.

Chichester City possess the stronger attacking potential: their average xG stands at 1.92 compared with Havant & Waterlooville’s 1.27, while over the last five matches the hosts have averaged 1.6 goals scored against 0.6 for the visitors. Havant have lost 80% of their last five fixtures and conceded an average of 1.8 goals in those games, whereas Chichester have won 40% of their matches and recorded 1.4 points per game. The visitors were trailing at half-time in 60% of their last five appearances, with an average first-half record of just 0.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The hosts are also not particularly strong from the outset, having gone into the break behind in 60% of their recent matches, which makes the HT/FT draw/Chichester scenario—level at half-time before a Chichester win after the break—significant. Nevertheless, the strongest individual scenario remains Chichester leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1), supported by Havant’s weak defence, which is conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match in the current campaign.