Chippenham Town vs Frome Town: match statistics

Frome Town hold the edge in the season record: they have won 4 of 10 matches and scored 17 goals, while Chippenham Town have won 2 of 8 and scored 7. Away from home, the visitors average 1.8 goals with an xG of 1.71, while the hosts concede an average of 1.67 goals at home and are yet to keep a clean sheet. Frome are also averaging 16 shots per away match, although their defence allows opponents to score 1.4 goals per game. Recent results temper expectations of the visitors, however: they have failed to win any of their last five matches, conceding 10 goals in that run; Chippenham have picked up 5 points over the same period but have also conceded 8 goals. Frome’s attacking advantage supports backing an away win, but their current run increases the likelihood of a draw.

There is a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score: Chippenham average 1.6 goals per match and Frome 1.8, with xG figures of 1.65 and 1.71 respectively. Over their last 5 matches, the teams conceded an average of 1.6 and 2.0 goals, so both defences are allowing opponents chances to score. Chippenham scored in every match included in the season data, strengthening the case for the hosts to score against Frome, who kept a clean sheet in 20% of matches. However, there is a clear risk with this pick: Frome failed to score in 40% of matches, while Chippenham also kept a clean sheet in 40%. Even so, the teams' attacking averages and recent defensive performances support a cautious pick on BTTS - Yes.

At least 2 goals were scored in 80% of matches involving both teams, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. Chippenham average 1.6 goals scored, while Frome concede 1.4; the hosts have also scored in each of their last 5 matches. The visitors average 1.8 goals, although their average has dropped to 1.2 over their last 5 games, which limits confidence in higher goal lines. Both teams went Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their matches, but Over 3.5 in only 40%, making the case for Over 1.5 more compelling. The forecast of 2.8 total goals takes these results into account, along with the league average of 3.08 goals per match.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: in the recent sample, Chippenham were level at the break in 75% of matches, compared with 60% for Frome. The visitors concede an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time and keep a clean sheet in 80% of matches at that stage, making it difficult for the hosts to take an early lead. The balance of play could shift after the break, as Frome have conceded an average of 1.6 goals in second halves in recent matches and lost 60% of those halves. Chippenham have recently averaged 1.0 point per match, compared with 0.6 for Frome, who have failed to win any of their last five games. Therefore, of the possible match scenarios, a half-time draw followed by a home win after 90 minutes is the most compelling to me.