Chonburi vs Rayong: match statistics

Chonburi holds a home advantage in defense and goal differential: at home they concede on average 1.08 goals with a goal difference of +2, while Rayong away have a -4 differential and concede 1.5 goals on average. The hosts generate more chances — on average 13.83 total shots and 4.42 shots on target per home match with xG 1.38, whereas Rayong away average 11.92 total shots, 3.25 shots on target and xG 1.34. In the last 5 matches Chonburi have 3 wins and 2 losses, scoring 6 goals and averaging 1.8 points per match; Rayong meanwhile have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, 5 goals scored and 0.8 points per match on average. Rayong do, however, show slightly higher shot efficiency (conversion 10% versus Chonburi 9%) and a lower percentage of matches without scoring (17% versus 25%), which increases their chance to find the net. Taking into account Chonburi’s home defensive edge, higher number of shots on target and better form (1.8 points versus 0.8), I forecast a home win: 55% Chonburi, 25% draw, 20% Rayong.

Both teams have a very high season BTTS rate: Chonburi 75% and Rayong 75%, versus the league average of 56%, which is a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. xG analysis shows Chonburi with xG_for 2.07, while Rayong concedes an average xG of 1.72, yielding an expected ~1.9 goals for the home side; conversely Rayong has xG_for 1.34 against Chonburi’s average xG conceded of 1.41, i.e. ~1.4 expected goals for the away side. Additionally, Chonburi averages 17.17 shots and 5.83 on target per match versus Rayong’s 11.92 and 3.25, and season goal averages are 1.83 (Chonburi) and 1.17 (Rayong) with goals conceded 1.25 and 1.50 respectively, which favors a trade of goals. The only weakening signal is recent form over the last 5 matches, where Chonburi has only 20% BTTS compared to Rayong’s 80%, so I reduce confidence, but based on the above figures I recommend BTTS = 'Yes' as more likely (72% vs 28%).

Both teams regularly exceed the 1.5-goal threshold — Chonburi in 92% of matches, Rayong in 83% — therefore I rate Over 1.5 at 90%. Based on xG: the home side have xG_for 2.07, the visitors 1.34, while opponents’ xG conceded are 1.41 and 1.72, yielding expected 1.90 goals for Chonburi and 1.38 for Rayong (total 3.28). Additionally, both teams score in 75% of matches, and average shots on target are 5.83 for the hosts and 3.25 for the guests, which confirms chance creation. The seasonal share of matches over 2.5 goals is 50% for each team, so with an expected 3.28 goals I raise the probability of Over 2.5 to about 60%; Over 3.5 is only ~30% due to the seasonal level of 25% and the fact that the expected 3.28 is below 3.5.

Chonburi is the clear favorite: seasonally they score on average 1.83 goals per match versus Rayong's 1.17, have an xG of 2.07 versus 1.34 and average 17.17 shots versus 11.92, indicating an offensive advantage. In the first half Chonburi scores on average 0.83 goals compared to Rayong's 0.25 and leads at the break in 33% of matches (4 of 12), while Rayong leads only in 17% (2 of 12), so the home side has a higher chance to be leading after 45 minutes. In the second half the hosts also perform better — Chonburi averages 1.0 goals and concedes 0.42, while Rayong averages 0.92 and concedes 0.92, which increases the likelihood of the hosts maintaining their lead. Both teams have 75% of matches seasonally with both teams scoring, so I expect goals from both sides, but the higher xG and 50% wins for Chonburi versus 17% for Rayong shift the probability toward a scenario of the home team leading at half-time and winning full-time. Therefore the recommendation is 1/1 as the strongest signal (approx. 26%), with secondary options X/1 (20%) and X/X (20%).