Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island: match statistics

I forecast a home win (1). Chongqing Tongliang Long average 2.0 goals per home match (11 goals in the season) with 1.4 xG, while Qingdao register only 0.5 goals per away match (4 goals in the season) and 1.13 xG. The favorites generate higher-quality chances: 5 shots on target per match and 17% conversion versus the visitors’ 2.25 shots on target and 5% conversion, translating into significantly more genuine scoring opportunities. Defensively the hosts concede 1.0 goal at home on average (xG against 0.91), whereas the visitors concede 2.75 goals away (xG against 1.67); Qingdao have yet to win on the road (0% wins) and suffer 75% defeats away, with 50% of away matches ending without a goal scored. Additionally, the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches and collect 2.6 points on average in that span versus the visitors’ 1.2 points, therefore I assign a clear advantage to the home side.

In my assessment the more likely scenario is 'No' (BTTS - No) — I assign it 65%. The home side averages 0.67 goals per game this season and has a clean sheet in 67% of matches; at their stadium BTTS has occurred in only 33% of games, which strongly favors no goal from the visitors. The away team scores 0.50 goals per game and have scored 4 while conceding 12 this season, i.e. they concede 2.75 goals per game on average, indicating significant defensive vulnerability but simultaneously low scoring ability. xG stats indicate a moderate number of chances — home xG 1.15 versus the away defense xG conceded 1.67 — however finishing efficiency is poor (conversion 7% for the home team and 5% for the away), so many opportunities may remain goalless. Considering the dominant share of home clean sheets (67%) and the lower seasonal BTTS rate at their stadium (33% vs league 54%), I give 65% for 'No' and 35% for 'Yes'.

The xG-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Chongqing (xG_for 1.15 vs xG_against_away 1.67) and 1.23 for Qingdao (xG_for 1.13 vs xG_against_home 1.33), totaling 2.64 goals. With a combined lambda = 2.64 the Poisson distribution indicates probability of Over 1.5 ≈ 74% (P≤1 ≈ 26%), Over 2.5 ≈ 49% and Over 3.5 ≈ 27%. This is supported by form: Chongqing scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches (2.0 avg), while Qingdao concedes 2.75 goals per game this season, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. Seasonal stats are mixed — hosts have 67% clean sheets and 67% of matches under 1.5, whereas visitors have 75% of matches over 0.5 and 50% over 2.5 — yet the xG advantage and recent form favor goals. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is a play on Over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5) with an estimated edge of about 74%.

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 2 of 3 matches (67%), while the visitors have never led at half-time (0%), so HT = X has strong statistical backing. Homes average 0.33 goals by half-time versus 0.0 for the visitors and have not conceded by the interval (0.0 on average), therefore a 0-0 or 1-0 half-time score is the most probable. However, in the second half the home advantage increases: over the last five matches they average 1.8 goals in second halves and have won those halves 60% of the time, whereas the visitors won second halves only 20% of the time. Additionally, xG is similar (1.15 for the home side versus 1.13 for the visitors), but the visitors concede far more goals on the season (2.75 per match versus 0.33 for the home side) and the home team produce more on-target shots (3.67 vs 2.25), which supports a turnaround after the break. On this basis the most confident pick is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1), with lower probability for 1/1 or X/X scenarios.