Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso: match statistics

Cienciano have a clear home advantage: they win 73% of their home matches, score an average of 2.27 goals and lose just 18% of such games. Deportivo Garcilaso score only 0.50 goals per away match, fail to find the net in 50% of their outings and lose 50% of those fixtures. The hosts create significantly more high-quality chances, posting an average xG of 1.95 compared with the visitors’ 1.16, while also averaging 18.55 shots to their opponents’ 10.7. Garcilaso are, however, coming off a very strong run, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches and just 3 goals conceded, which increases the likelihood of a closely contested spell of play. Despite the visitors’ better recent form, their poor finishing and away record point towards a Cienciano victory.

Cienciano record BTTS in 64% of their home matches and score an average of 1.91 goals, clearly surpassing Deportivo Garcilaso’s away tally of 0.50 goals. However, the visitors are in very good current attacking form: they have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 1.8, while Cienciano have conceded an average of 1.0 goal during this period. Deportivo Garcilaso have an xG of 1.16, while the hosts allow opponents an average xG of 1.17, making a goal for the visitors a realistic scenario. Cienciano average 4.82 shots on target at home compared with 3.10 for their opponents, while Garcilaso’s defence, based on seasonal xG against, allows 1.63 expected goals. Although Garcilaso’s away BTTS rate is only 30%, the hosts’ attacking advantage and the visitors’ current scoring form slightly favour BTTS - Yes.

The strongest signal is Deportivo Garcilaso’s low-scoring profile in away matches: the team averages just 0.50 goals there, and a maximum of 3.5 goals was scored in 90% of its games. Cienciano are more dangerous offensively, averaging 1.91 goals at home, but they have scored only 1.20 goals per match across their last five games, with just 20% of those outings going over 2.5 goals. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 36% of matches, compared with 40% for Garcilaso, further reducing the likelihood of an open game. The combined expected xG of both teams is approximately 2.20, making a scenario with a maximum of three goals clearly more likely than Over 3.5.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Cienciano win, as Deportivo Garcilaso were level at the break in 80% of their matches, with only 10% ending with them taking the lead. The hosts concede just 0.18 goals per match before half-time and kept a clean sheet in the first half in 82% of their appearances, while the visitors average only 0.10 goals scored during this period. After the break, Cienciano significantly increase their attacking output to 1.18 goals per match, while Garcilaso concede an average of 0.80 goals. Over the course of the season, the hosts win 73% of their matches and collect 2.36 points per game, compared with the visitors’ 20% win rate and 0.90 points per match. Garcilaso’s stronger current run, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, reduces confidence in the pick; however, their seasonal away average of 0.50 goals still supports Cienciano taking the lead after half-time.