Cienciano vs UCV Moquegua: match statistics
Cienciano vs UCV Moquegua: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Cienciano played UCV Moquegua in Primera División (Peru). The match was played on 20 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Cienciano: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. UCV Moquegua: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Cienciano scores 2.44 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. UCV Moquegua scores 1.10 and concedes 1.50. League average: 2.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Cienciano 78%, UCV Moquegua 40%. Over 2.5: Cienciano 78%, UCV Moquegua 70%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Cienciano has higher xG: 1.65 vs 1.08. Cienciano: 15.1 shots per match, UCV Moquegua: 9.7.
Match halves
Cienciano: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 1.22. UCV Moquegua: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 0.90.
Goals by minute
Cienciano: 76-90+ (6 goals). UCV Moquegua: 46-60 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Cienciano is the clear favorite: at home they score an average of 3.2 goals per match and concede 1.0, have an 80% win rate at the stadium and 0% losses, while UCV Moquegua away scores an average of 0.4 goals and concedes 1.8, losing 60% of away matches. In attack the hosts average 16.6 shots per game with 8.2 on target and a 19% conversion rate, whereas the visitors have 9.8 shots, 3.6 on target and only a 4% conversion. The difference in chance quality is confirmed by xG: Cienciano at home has an average xG of 1.9 versus UCV’s 1.08 on the road; in the last 5 matches the hosts scored 11 goals (4 wins and 1 draw), and the visitors 8 goals (3 wins, 2 losses), with average points per game in the last 5 rounds of 2.6 for Cienciano and 1.8 for UCV. Additionally Cienciano failed to score in 0% of home matches (i.e. they always score), while UCV failed to score in 80% of away matches, which significantly limits their chances. Based on this I forecast a home win; estimated probabilities: Cienciano 78%, draw 12%, UCV win 10%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The home side averages 1.8 goals per game this season, while the visitors only 0.4, with the visitors failing to score in 80% of matches and the hosts having no goalless games (0%). Season BTTS rate is 60% for Cienciano and only 20% for UCV, although in the last 5 matches both teams show 60% BTTS, indicating a short-term improvement from the away side. Both teams’ xG is identical (1.08 vs 1.08), but the visitors’ shot conversion is only 4% versus the hosts’ 19%, so with equal xG Cienciano converts chances into goals far more often. Additionally, in the last 5 matches the hosts have averaged 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, while the visitors have 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, which collectively suggests that the visitors’ lack of finishing limits the BTTS scenario; therefore I assess BTTS - Yes at ~30% versus 70% for No Goal / clean sheet expected.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I expect Cienciano to score about 1.33 goals and UCV Moquegua about 1.24 goals (total 2.57), calculated as the average of their attacking xG (1.08 for both teams) and opponent defensive xG (1.57 for UCV, 1.40 for Cienciano). Cienciano averages 1.8 goals this season (last 5 matches 2.2) and has Over 2.5 in 80% of games; UCV averages 0.4 goals seasonally (last 5: 1.6) and has Over 2.5 in 60% of matches, which increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals. A Poisson model with a total of 2.57 yields P(>1.5) ≈73% and P(>2.5) ≈47%, but historical Over 2.5 rates (80%/60%) and the last 5 rounds (60%/100% for Over 2.5) push the real Over 2.5 probability to about 60%. Therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is backing Over 1.5 (I rate this 78%), while Over 2.5 is moderately likely (≈60%) and Over 3.5 has a low probability (~26%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is Cienciano leading at the break and winning the match (1/1). The hosts have a seasonal goals average of 1.8 versus 0.4 for UCV Moquegua and a shot conversion rate of 19% compared to 4%, with equal xG of 1.08–1.08, which indicates a significant advantage for Cienciano in chance conversion. In the last 5 matches the hosts averaged 1.2 goals by half-time, while the visitors averaged only 0.2; the hosts led at the break in 40% of those games (2 of 5) versus 20% (1 of 5) for the visitors. Additionally, Cienciano scored 5 goals in minutes 46–60 versus 1 for the visitors, and UCV concedes an average of 1.8 goals per match, which increases the probability of maintaining or extending the lead after the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Cienciano | UCV Moquegua | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 45% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Cienciano is 67% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Cienciano · 1.8 pts / match - UCV Moquegua
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cienciano is 122% better for: goals scored per match.
2.44 goals / match - Cienciano · 1.1 goals / match - UCV Moquegua
Cienciano is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Cienciano · 1.5 goals / match - UCV Moquegua
Cienciano scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while UCV Moquegua keeps a clean sheet in 30% (3 of 10 matches).
UCV Moquegua scores in 60% of matches (6 of 10 matches), while Cienciano keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Cienciano
Over / Under - UCV Moquegua
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cienciano is 95% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / match - Cienciano · 0.8 pts / match - UCV Moquegua
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cienciano - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
UCV Moquegua - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Cienciano
UCV Moquegua
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Cienciano | Liga | UCV Moquegua | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.78 | 2.73 | ▼ 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 78% | 57% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 78% | 54% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 25% | ▲ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 67% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 80% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Cienciano vs UCV Moquegua?
The Primera División match finished Cienciano 2:1 UCV Moquegua. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Cienciano vs UCV Moquegua?
Cienciano score 2.44 goals per game on average and UCV Moquegua 1.10. The Primera División average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 78% of Cienciano's matches and 40% of UCV Moquegua's.
What form are Cienciano and UCV Moquegua in?
Over the last 5 games Cienciano have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and UCV Moquegua 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cienciano vs UCV Moquegua?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.