Ciudad de Bolívar vs All Boys: match statistics

Ciudad de Bolívar have 8 wins and 19 goals this season, and at home they average 1.1 goals per game with 2 shots on target; All Boys have 4 wins and 13 goals overall, and away they average only 0.6 goals with 2.9 shots on target. xG figures show 1.19 for the hosts and 1.28 for the visitors, so the visitors generate slightly more expected chances, however shot conversion favors Ciudad de Bolívar (11% vs 6%), which translates into actual goals. Defensively the hosts concede 1.1 goals at home on average and record clean sheets in 40% of matches, while All Boys concede 1.6 goals away and have only 20% clean sheets, so the hosts’ defence looks about 0.5 goals per game stronger. The last 5 matches show a form paradox: Ciudad de Bolívar are 1-1-3 (0.8 points per game), and All Boys are 1-3-1 (1.2 points per game), but the visitors have as many as 50% of away games without scoring versus 20% for the hosts, which limits their winning potential. Considering the hosts’ superior efficiency, lower average goals conceded at home and All Boys’ low away win rate, I forecast Ciudad de Bolívar to win with probabilities: 55% win, 30% draw, 15% All Boys win.

A strong signal for BTTS is that in the last 5 matches both Ciudad de Bolívar and All Boys had BTTS at 80%. In that period Ciudad de Bolívar scored on average 1.2 goals and conceded 1.6 goals per match, while All Boys scored 1.0 and conceded 1.0, indicating both teams both create and allow goals. xG stats confirm this trend: in the last 5 matches xG for is 1.14 (Ciudad) and 1.12 (All Boys), and xG against is 1.79 and 1.24, so particularly the home side has recently allowed opponents a significant number of chances. Contradictory signals are the home season clean sheet rate of 60% and the league clean sheet rate of 77%, and the season BTTS for both teams is only 40%, so caution is required. Nevertheless I give greater weight to form over the last 5 matches and forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% versus 30% for No.

The combination of Ciudad de Bolívar’s attacking xG and the opponent’s defensive xG yields 1.51 xG for Ciudad de Bolívar (1.44 vs 1.57) and 1.14 xG for All Boys (1.28 vs 1.00), totaling 2.65 expected xG in the match. From a Poisson distribution with mean 2.65, the probability of Over 1.5 is about 74% (0 goals ≈7.1%, 1 goal ≈18.7% → cumulative ≤1 ≈25.8%). Over 2.5 is close to 49% (cumulative ≤2 ≈50.7%), while Over 3.5 has substantially lower odds ≈27% (cumulative ≤3 ≈72.6%). Additionally, Ciudad averages 10.8 shots with 3.7 on target, and All Boys 10.1 shots with 2.9 on target, both teams showing a 6% conversion rate; in the last 5 matches Ciudad had 80% of games Over 2.5 and both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of fixtures, which increases the likelihood of more goals. Although seasonally Ciudad scores 0.7 goals and All Boys 0.6, and Ciudad has 60% clean sheets versus 20% for All Boys, the xG ratio (1.51 vs 1.14) and the volume of created chances indicate the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

At half-time I expect a draw: the home team have been drawing at the break in 90% of their matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 90%), while the visitors in 60% (drawingAtHTPercentage_away = 60%), with HT goal averages of 0.5 for the hosts and 0.8 for the guests (scoredAVGHT_home 0.2, concededAVGHT_home 0.3; scoredAVGHT_away 0.2, concededAVGHT_away 0.6). In the second half the home advantage is pronounced — they average 1.8 points after the break versus 0.8 for the visitors (ppg_2hg_home 1.8 vs ppg_2hg_away 0.8), win second halves in 40% of cases versus 20% for the away side, and keep 90% clean sheets in second halves (cs_2hg_percentage_home 90% vs cs_2hg_percentage_away 20%). Offensive metrics also favor Ciudad de Bolívar: xG 1.44 versus 1.28, more on-target shots 3.7 vs 2.9, and the hosts have scored 4 goals in minutes 76–90 while the visitors have conceded 4 in that interval, indicating decisive late strikes. For these reasons the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home turnaround after the break (X/1), while the second most probable outcome is a draw at full-time (X/X).