Clermont vs Dijon: match statistics

Both teams began the season with one draw each, at home or away, and their goal records in these conditions stand at 0:0 for Clermont and 1:1 for Dijon. Clermont have a clear problem creating chances at home: they average just 4 shots per match, 0 shots on target and an xG of 0.47, while also keeping a clean sheet. Dijon create more, averaging 12 shots and 4 on target, with an away xG of 1.31; however, they allow opponents a very high xG of 2.51. The visitors have been slightly more consistent over their last five matches, scoring 8 goals and collecting 8 points compared with Clermont’s 4 goals and 7 points, but their poor defensive record limits that advantage. The combination of the hosts’ solid defence and low attacking efficiency with Dijon’s open but unreliable style of play points most strongly towards a draw.

The “No” selection has a slight edge, as the average BTTS rate in Ligue 2 is only 39%, while the competition produces an average of 2.11 goals per match. Clermont have scored just 0.8 goals per game across their last 5 fixtures and recorded BTTS in 40% of cases, indicating a genuine risk that the hosts may fail to score again. Dijon are in better attacking form, averaging 1.6 goals over their five most recent matches, but Clermont have conceded only 1.0 goal per game during this period. Although the hosts create plenty of chances, as reflected by their seasonal xG of 1.98 and an average of 9 shots on target, their current scoring efficiency stands at 0%, so the uncertainty surrounding their goal outweighs the signals in favour of BTTS.

In their last five matches, Clermont averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Dijon scored 1.6 goals with the same average of 1.0 goals conceded. The hosts’ attacking potential is limited by an xG of 0.97 over their last five games, whereas Dijon generated 1.23 xG, pointing to a moderate rather than open goal-scoring scenario. The estimated total of 2.27 goals remains close to the league average of 2.11, while only 39% of league matches go Over 2.5 goals. The Under 3.5 line has the edge, as even Dijon’s more high-scoring recent profile produces an average of just 2.6 total goals per match, compared with Clermont’s 1.8.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Dijon win, as the visitors have not once been trailing at the break in their last five matches: they were level at half-time in 50% of cases and leading in the other 50%. Clermont average just 0.4 goals before the break and went into half-time trailing in 40% of their recent matches, while Dijon conceded 0.0 goals per game before half-time. After the interval, Dijon score an average of 1.0 goals compared with Clermont’s 0.4, and at least one second-half goal was scored in 100% of the visitors’ last matches. Dijon also have the stronger current attacking record overall, averaging 1.6 goals across their last five matches compared with Clermont’s 0.8. The hosts’ advantage in the quality of chances created, with an xG of 1.98 versus Dijon’s 1.31, reduces confidence in the pick, but Clermont’s poor finishing and the visitors’ more stable form support a post-half-time turnaround.