Cliftonville vs Ballymena United: match statistics

Cliftonville have a slight edge thanks to home advantage: they have won 50% of their home matches, while Ballymena United have won 20% of their away games. The hosts also create more chances—their average home xG is 1.53 compared with the visitors’ 1.16 away from home, while shots on target stand at 5.75 and 3.2 per match, respectively. Ballymena remain a threat, however, as despite creating fewer chances they average 1.8 goals away from home, with a shot conversion rate of 20%. Neither defence inspires much confidence: Cliftonville concede an average of 1.5 goals at home, while Ballymena concede 1.6 away. In addition, the hosts have won only 2 of their last 5 matches, which limits their advantage, particularly as 40% of the visitors’ away games have ended in a draw.

BTTS landed in 80% of Ballymena United’s away matches, although the figure is only 33% in Cliftonville’s home games. More recent results, however, point towards goals at both ends: BTTS occurred in 60% of Cliftonville’s last 5 matches and 80% of Ballymena’s. The hosts average 1.0 goals scored at home, while the visitors concede 1.6 on the road, giving Cliftonville a genuine chance of finding the net. Ballymena average 1.8 goals scored away from home and have failed to score in none of the matches considered, while Cliftonville concede an average of 1.0 goals at home. Despite the hosts’ more cautious match profile, the visitors’ stronger scoring numbers and recent goal-scoring form point to BTTS - Yes.

Every Cliftonville home match and Ballymena United away match played so far has featured at least 2 goals, providing the strongest signal in favour of Over 1.5 goals. The visitors average 1.8 goals scored away from home, while the hosts concede 1.0 at home; meanwhile, Cliftonville score 1.0 goal, and Ballymena concede 1.6. The expected total of 2.67 goals is close to the league average of 2.65, also pointing towards at least two goals. Higher lines are less certain: Over 2.5 goals landed in 0% of Cliftonville’s home matches, but in 80% of Ballymena’s away matches. This discrepancy makes Over 1.5 goals a safer pick than backing at least 3 goals.

Cliftonville were level at half-time in all 3 of their matches at home so far, each time 0-0, pointing to a balanced start. Ballymena also went into the break level in 3 of their last 5 matches, although their away games have more often featured goals before half-time. After the break, the visitors have greater attacking potential: they average 1.8 goals away from home compared with the hosts' 1.0 at home, and in their last 5 matches they averaged 1.0 goals after half-time, versus 0.4 for Cliftonville. This makes a half-time draw followed by a Ballymena win the most likely single scenario in the HT/FT market. The pick remains uncertain, however, as the visitors concede an average of 1.6 goals away from home, and 40% of their away matches have ended in a draw.