Club Atlético Güemes vs Atlético Rafaela: match statistics

Both teams have clear problems in front of goal: Güemes average 0.92 goals at home, while Atlético Rafaela score just 0.42 goals away from home. The hosts are winless in their last five matches, scoring only 3 goals and losing 3 times, but the visitors have also found the net just 3 times during this period. Rafaela have shown greater recent stability, recording 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat in their last five matches, while conceding only 3 goals compared with Güemes’ 9. Away from home, however, the visitors draw as many as 42% of their matches, win just 8% and fail to score in 58%, which limits their chances of securing a full breakthrough. The hosts’ low expected goals tally of 1.02, combined with Rafaela’s poor attacking output, points towards a closely contested, low-scoring draw.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: Atlético Rafaela score just 0.42 goals on average away from home and fail to score in 58% of matches. Güemes keep a clean sheet in 77% of their home games, conceding only 0.46 goals per match there, which significantly limits the visitors’ chances of scoring. The season BTTS rate is just 23% for the hosts and 33% for Rafaela, compared with the league figure of 40%. The teams’ last five matches produced an average of 0.6 goals scored per game for each side, while Rafaela conceded only 0.6 goals on average during this period, making a scenario in which Güemes fail to breach their opponents’ defence realistic as well. Although the hosts have recently conceded 1.8 goals per match, Rafaela’s poor away finishing and the league’s very low overall goal average of 1.93 per match still provide stronger support for a pick of at least one team failing to score.

The match profile clearly points towards a low-scoring game: at home, the hosts concede just 0.46 goals on average, while Atlético Rafaela score only 0.42 goals away from home. Güemes average 1.00 goal at home, whereas the visitors have kept a clean sheet in only 33% of their matches and concede 1.08 goals on average, indicating above all a limited chance of the hosts scoring more than once. Under 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Güemes matches and 83% of Rafaela matches, while the 3.5 line has not been breached in 85% and 100% of cases, respectively. Additionally, both teams have scored 3 goals across their last five matches, averaging 0.6 per game, which is why Under 3.5 goals has the strongest statistical support.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: Güemes were level after 45 minutes in 54% of their home matches, while Rafaela were level in 75% of their away fixtures, with averages of just 0.46 and 0.58 goals scored before the break, respectively. However, the home side are clearly stronger over the full match on home soil, averaging 2.08 points per game and winning 62% of their matches, whereas Rafaela have won only 8% and lost 50% of their away games. After the break, Güemes score an average of 0.69 goals, while the visitors concede 0.67, which supports a second-half shift in the result in favour of the hosts. Moreover, Rafaela have not taken the lead at half-time in any away match, and their overall season scoring average is only 0.42 goals, making the X/1 scenario the most likely despite the hosts' weaker current run of form.