Club Atlético Güemes vs Colegiales: match statistics

Club Atlético Güemes have the home advantage: they have won 27% of their home matches, while Colegiales have won just 7% of their away games and lost as many as 73%. The hosts average 0.8 goals per home match, compared with just 0.33 for the visitors away from home, pointing to a narrow Güemes win. However, recent form favours Colegiales, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while the hosts have picked up just 1 point and scored 2 goals over the same period. The visitors create chances worth an average xG of 1.26 away from home, compared with 0.98 for the hosts at home, but have failed to turn that advantage into goals and have been held scoreless in 67% of their away matches. With the hosts conceding an average of 1.53 goals at home, the outcome remains open, but Colegiales’ poor away scoring record means they cannot be considered favourites.

The strongest signal points to Colegiales failing to score: they average just 0.33 goals away from home and draw a blank in 67% of matches. Club Atlético Güemes concede an average of 0.63 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, further limiting the visitors’ chances. The hosts average 1.56 goals at home, while Colegiales concede 1.47 away, making a goal for just one team more likely than both teams scoring. The risk to the BTTS - No pick is recent form: Güemes conceded an average of 2.0 goals over their last five matches, while Colegiales scored 1.2. Despite the visitors’ improvement, their away inefficiency and the low rate of matches in which both teams score, at 27%, tip the balance in favor of BTTS - No.

The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals: this threshold was not exceeded in 81% of the home team’s matches and 87% of the away team’s matches. Güemes average 1.56 goals scored at home, while Colegiales concede 1.47 goals away from home; however, the visitors score just 0.33 goals per away match. The league average of 1.93 goals and the fact that Colegiales have failed to score in 67% of their away matches also support caution about higher totals. The hosts have conceded an average of 2.0 goals across their last five matches, which boosts the visitors’ chances of scoring, but the away side’s combined tally over that period was just 2 goals. Therefore, with a match total projection of 2.1 goals, Under 3.5 offers a clearer signal than Under 2.5.

The strongest signal comes from the last five matches: Colegiales led at the break in 3 of them, while Güemes were trailing at half-time in 4. Over this period, the visitors scored an average of 1.2 first-half goals, while the hosts conceded an average of 1.0, supporting the case for Colegiales to lead after 45 minutes. Holding that advantage is more likely than Güemes completing a turnaround, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of just 0.2 goals after the break. The 2/2 pick nevertheless remains risky: over the larger sample, the hosts won 69% of matches and the visitors just 7%, so their recent form differs markedly from their season-long results.