Coca-Cola vs Wadi Degla: match statistics

Wadi Degla are favorites: they sit 9th vs Coca-Cola’s 13th and have 7 wins this season vs 5, with a goal difference of 23:20 compared to the hosts’ 19:25. The form gap is clear — the visitors scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches and average 1.2 points in that period, while Coca-Cola have only 2 goals and 0.4 points and conceded 8 goals in their last five (Wadi conceded 4). At home Coca-Cola average 1.1 goals and fail to score in only 10% of matches, and their home xG is 1.26 vs the visitors’ 1.23 away xG, indicating similar quality of chances. However, the visitors have better shot conversion (13% vs 10%), higher possession (55% vs 51%) and a superior away record (wins in 40% of away games, goal difference +3); together with fewer recent goals conceded this gives them the edge. I forecast a Wadi Degla win, although the high share of home draws (60% draws) makes a draw a realistic outcome.

Seasonal BTTS indicators favor the both teams to score scenario: Coca-Cola has BTTS 55%, Wadi Degla 70%, the average of these values is 62.5% and points toward the “yes” outcome. Support comes from xG and shots analysis — home xG is 1.31 versus 1.23 for the visitors, while xG conceded is 0.98 vs 1.16, meaning both teams produce ~1.2 xG and simultaneously allow ~1.0–1.16 xG to the opponent. The last 5 matches show mixed signals: hosts have BTTS 40% and score on average 0.4 goals while conceding 1.6, whereas the visitors have BTTS 60% and score 1.0 while conceding 0.8 — this suggests Coca-Cola is more prone to conceding, and Wadi Degla has better scoring form. Clean sheet percentages are low (27% for the hosts and 20% for the visitors) and both teams are above the league BTTS average of 47%, therefore I give the “yes” option an edge rated 68% versus 32%.

I estimate expected goals at 1.24 for Coca-Cola and 1.11 for Wadi Degla, totaling 2.35, which is above the league average of 2.0. Seasonal percentages of matches over 1.5 goals are 55% for home side and 70% for away, so the combined probability for Over 1.5 is high — therefore I recommend Over 1.5 (75%). Additionally, home xG 1.31 versus away xG 1.23, plus Coca-Cola’s weaker defense in the last 5 matches (8 goals conceded, 1.6 average) and Wadi’s higher conversion rate (13%) support the case for at least two goals in the match. I assess Over 2.5 as less certain (48%) based on seasonal 27% for Coca-Cola and 50% for Wadi, and I consider Over 3.5 unlikely (15%) given seasonal 9%/20%.

A half-time draw appears most likely: Coca‑Cola led at the break in only 9% of matches, while a half-time draw occurs frequently – 55% for Coca‑Cola and 60% for Wadi Degla; the average goals by half-time are 1.0 (AVGHT_home) versus 0.7 (AVGHT_away). After the break the visitors have a clear advantage: Wadi Degla scores on average 1.0 goals in the second half versus 0.55 for Coca‑Cola, and 80% of the visitors’ matches feature at least one second-half goal versus 45% for the home side. Additionally, Wadi Degla has better season metrics—on average 1.6 points per game and a 40% win rate compared with the home side’s 1.27 points and 27% wins, with similar xG of 1.31 versus 1.23—suggesting they more often turn a half-time draw into a win. On that basis I rate the strongest signal as Half-Time draw / Full-Time away win (X/2) at 30% probability; second is Half-Time draw / Full-Time draw (X/X) at 20%, followed by the visitors maintaining their lead to the end (2/2) at 22%.