Coleraine vs Ballymena United: match statistics

Coleraine are top of the table and remain unbeaten after 5 matches, winning 4 of them with a 12:2 goal difference, while Ballymena United have lost 3 of their last 5 games and have averaged fewer goals than their opponents during that period. At home, the hosts create a high volume of chances: they average 16 shots, including 7 on target, while their xG is as high as 2.48, compared with just 0.45 xG conceded. Away from home, Ballymena average only 7.67 shots and 2.67 on target, with an offensive xG of 1.05, suggesting they could struggle to break through the league leaders’ tight defence. The visitors do average 2 goals scored per away match, but they concede 1.33 goals per game and allow opponents an xG of 1.40. Coleraine’s advantage in current form, 63% possession and the quality of chances created clearly points to a home win.

The “No” selection has a slight edge, as Coleraine have yet to score a goal in the seasonal data, with their share of matches without scoring standing at 100%. The hosts generate just 0.93 xG per match and average 3 shots on target, while Ballymena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their games. However, Coleraine’s recent form is clearly better: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged 2.4 goals with an xG of 2.06, so the risk of a home goal remains significant. Ballymena score an average of 2.0 goals per match this season, while Coleraine concede an average of 2.0, strongly supporting at least one goal for the visitors. Despite this, BTTS lands in just 41% of league matches, and the combination of Coleraine’s very poor seasonal attack with the possibility of a Ballymena clean sheet gives a slight edge to the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have recorded at least 2 goals in 100% of their league matches to date. Coleraine have averaged 2.4 goals scored in their last 5 games, while Ballymena have conceded 1.8 goals per match over the same period, clearly strengthening the outlook for goals from the hosts. The xG figures also support this: Coleraine have created an average of 2.06 xG, while Ballymena’s defence has allowed opponents 1.54 xG. The visitors still possess an attacking threat, having scored 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 appearances, although Coleraine’s solid defence, conceding just 0.4 goals, limits their projection to 0.95 goals. With a total projected goal count of 2.90, the 1.5 line offers a clear edge over Over 2.5, which is more dependent on finishing efficiency.

The strongest signal points to a Coleraine win in both halves, as the team has won 4 of its last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded. The hosts were leading at the break in 3 of those 5 matches, did not trail in any of them, and conceded no goals before half-time. Ballymena United have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game, and went into half-time trailing in 2 of those 5 fixtures. After the break, Coleraine still look more solid, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while the visitors average 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Although the current xG averages are similar—0.93 for the hosts versus 1.05 for the visitors—Coleraine’s clearly superior current form and defensive record make the 1/1 scenario the most likely outcome.