Coleraine vs Cliftonville: match statistics

Coleraine holds a clear statistical edge: at home they won 81% of matches, score on average 2.31 goals per game, register 6.19 shots on target and have a conversion rate of 17%; in the last 5 matches they scored 10 goals and averaged 2.6 points per game (4-1-0). Cliftonville are significantly weaker away — they won only 29% of road games, score 1.12 goals on average, have 4 shots on target per game, a 10% conversion and have gone winless in their last 5 matches, scoring just 4 goals (0-2-3, PPG 0.4). Defensively the hosts also dominate: Coleraine concedes 0.75 goals at home (xG against 1.03), while Cliftonville concedes 1.47 goals away and has a higher xG against (1.51) than the xG they create (1.35). Additionally the hosts never fail to score (FTS 0% at home) and keep 44% clean sheets, whereas the visitors fail to score in 29% of away games and have only 24% clean sheets, which favors Coleraine’s attack. Considering the 2.31 vs 1.12 average goals, 0.75 vs 1.47 goals conceded and higher home xG for Coleraine (1.7 vs 1.35), I predict a Coleraine win.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates above the league average: Coleraine 61% and Cliftonville 53% versus a league average of 52%, which already favors the 'BTTS - Yes' option. In the last 5 matches the signal is stronger — BTTS was 80% for Coleraine and 60% for Cliftonville; in that period Coleraine scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) and conceded 4, while Cliftonville scored 4 goals (0.8 per game) and conceded 10. xG and shot metrics confirm offensive pressure: Coleraine has xG 1.55, 13.11 shots and 4.67 on target with a 13% conversion, Cliftonville has xG 1.35, 10.94 shots and 4.0 on target with a 10% conversion; xG comparison (1.55 vs 1.51 on the opponent’s side and 1.35 vs 1.44 in the reverse matchup) suggests both teams create scoring chances. Clean sheets are rare (Coleraine 28%, Cliftonville 24%), and seasonal totals are 68 scored and 33 conceded for Coleraine versus 50/52 for Cliftonville, showing the home side regularly scores while the visitors often concede. Considering 61% vs 53% seasonal BTTS, 80% vs 60% in the last 5 matches, solid xG and low clean sheet rates, I assess BTTS probability at 75% and recommend a 'Yes' bet.

xG analysis yields a total of approximately 2.93 expected goals: Coleraine xG_for 1.55 vs Cliftonville xG_against 1.51 -> ~1.53 goals, Cliftonville xG_for 1.35 vs Coleraine xG_against 1.44 -> ~1.40 goals. Season shares of matches >1.5 are high: Coleraine 83% of such games, Cliftonville 71%, therefore Over 1.5 is rated at 85%. The 2.5 line has moderate support (Coleraine 61% >2.5, Cliftonville 53%, in the last 5 matches of both teams Over 2.5 = 60%), hence Over 2.5 ~66%. Over 3.5 looks less likely (Coleraine 44% vs Cliftonville 29%), so I assign it 36% probability. The best and strongest signal is Over 1.5 due to the total xG of 2.93, high seasonal >1.5 percentages and Coleraine form (averaging 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches).

I back X/1 (draw at Half-Time, Coleraine win at Full-Time) as the most likely outcome. In the last five matches the home side drew at the break in 60% of games yet went on to win 80% of those, indicating a second-half turnaround in their favor. Seasonal metrics reinforce Coleraine’s edge: goals per game 1.72 versus Cliftonville’s 1.12, xG 1.55 versus 1.35, and more shots (13.11 vs 10.94) and shots on target (4.67 vs 4.00), all increasing their probability of overturning the score after the break. I expect a draw at Half-Time — the hosts average 0.8 goals in the first half over the last five matches versus 0.4 for the visitors, and HT is often undecided (last five HTs: 60% draws; seasonally the home side have 67% of first halves with at least 0.5 goals). Cliftonville have not won any of their last five matches (0% wins), while Coleraine’s points per game over the last five is 2.6 compared to Cliftonville’s 0.4; combined with the home side’s superior win rate (44% vs 29%) this raises the likelihood of a Coleraine Full-Time victory. Therefore a Half-Time draw and a home win at Full-Time appears the most probable scenario.