Colorado Rapids II vs St. Louis City II: match statistics

St. Louis City II sit 15th, while Colorado Rapids II are only 29th, and over the course of the season the visitors have won 8 matches compared with just 2 victories for the hosts. Colorado have suffered 4 defeats in their last five games and scored only 5 goals, whereas St. Louis, despite also being in mediocre form, have collected more points over this period: 0.8 compared with 0.6. Away from home, the visitors average 1.3 goals per match, compared with Colorado’s 0.9 at home. They also register more shots on target, 4.7 versus 3.9, and convert their chances more efficiently: 11% versus 8%. Both defences concede 1.9 goals per game in these conditions, but St. Louis allow opponents a lower xG, 1.49 compared with the hosts’ 1.86. The visitors’ advantage in chance quality, with an average xG of 1.53 compared with Colorado’s 1.35, points to a greater likelihood of a St. Louis win, although the defensive instability of both sides leaves a draw as a realistic possibility.

The scenario of both teams scoring is supported by their seasonal BTTS rates: 55% for Colorado Rapids II and as high as 70% for St. Louis City II, compared with the league average of 62%. Colorado scores an average of 1.91 goals, while St. Louis City II concedes as many as 1.90 per match, with the hosts also generating a high 1.91 xG. The visitors should create chances of their own, as their average xG stands at 1.53, while Colorado allows opponents 1.26 xG and has conceded 2.0 goals per match over its last five games. The current run also points towards goals at both ends, as both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, while their defences allowed opponents 2.0 and 1.6 goals respectively. The risk to the pick is Colorado’s 36% clean-sheet rate and the team’s average of just 1.0 goal scored across its last five appearances; however, the visitors’ weak defence clearly strengthens the BTTS - Yes selection.

Colorado Rapids II average 1.91 goals scored, while St. Louis City II concede as many as 1.90 per match, clearly favoring a home goal. The visitors generate an average of 1.53 xG, while Colorado’s defense allows 1.26 xG on average, making their projection of 1.38 goals well justified. In their last five matches, both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of cases, while their defenses conceded 2.0 and 1.6 goals per match, respectively. Across the entire season, the 1.5-goal line was also surpassed in 100% of Colorado’s matches and 90% of St. Louis’ fixtures. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5, as even with the more conservative projection of 3.20 goals, the margin above the line remains very large.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Colorado Rapids II win after the match, as the hosts average 1.91 goals per game over the season, while St. Louis City II concede 1.90. Colorado also have a clear edge in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.91 compared with the visitors’ 1.53, and the hosts record 6.55 shots on target per match versus 4.70 for St. Louis. The first half should nevertheless be more cautious, as Colorado were level at the break in 45% of their matches and St. Louis in 40%; moreover, the visitors were drawing at half-time in as many as 80% of their last five appearances. After the break, the statistics favour the hosts: they average 1.18 goals in the second half, while St. Louis score 0.80 and concede as many as 1.10 goals during this period. Colorado’s weaker current form, with four defeats in their last five matches, reduces confidence in the selection, but the hosts’ season average of 1.64 points per game compared with St. Louis’ 1.20 still supports the X/1 scenario.