Columbus Crew vs Montreal Impact: match statistics

Columbus Crew are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws while scoring 10 goals during that period, whereas Montreal have won just 1 of their last 5 games and scored only 4 goals. The home advantage is reinforced by their home record: they win 44% of matches, concede an average of just 1.00 goal, and keep a clean sheet in 33% of games. Montreal lose as many as 78% of their away matches, concede an average of 2.78 goals per game, and have a negative goal difference of -13. Crew should also control the game more often, as they average 58% possession at home compared with Montreal’s 49% away from home, while their average xG stands at 1.51 versus 1.39 for the visitors. The away side fail to score in 44% of away matches, which, combined with Columbus’ more consistent defensive record, strongly points towards a home win.

Columbus have recorded BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding 1.2, which clearly supports a Goal/Goal scenario. Montreal have scored only 0.8 goals per match over this period, but their average xG stands at 1.47, while Columbus have allowed opponents an xG of 1.50. The hosts should score against a Montreal defence that concedes an average of 2.78 goals away from home this season and keeps a clean sheet in just 11% of matches. The season-long BTTS rate for both teams is only 44%; however, Columbus’ attacking form and the visitors’ defensive weakness increase the chances that Montreal will also convert one of their opportunities. The BTTS - Yes pick is therefore moderately stronger, although the visitors’ limited recent scoring output leaves a significant risk of a BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

Columbus should be able to exploit Montreal’s very weak defense, which concedes an average of 2.78 goals per match, while the hosts’ xG stands at 1.56. In their last five matches, Columbus have scored 10 goals, or 2.0 per game, while the two teams average 5.11 and 4.44 shots on target per match, respectively. The 1.5-goal line has been exceeded in 67% of Columbus matches and in as many as 89% of Montreal games, providing a clearly stronger signal than higher goal thresholds. Montreal average 1.33 goals scored, but only 0.8 over their last five matches, which is why the larger share of the projected 2.80 goals is expected to come from the hosts. Over 1.5 goals has an edge thanks to the combination of Columbus’ attacking form and the high number of goals conceded by the visitors.

Columbus have a clear advantage in terms of form: they have averaged 2.0 goals over their last five matches and remain unbeaten, while Montreal have won only 20% of their games in the same sample. The hosts were leading at the break in 60% of their last five appearances and averaged 1.6 goals before half-time, whereas Montreal failed to score in this phase and were level at half-time in as many as 80% of their matches. Season data shows that Montreal concede an average of 2.78 goals per away match and allow opponents to score 1.56 goals after the break, which favours Columbus maintaining or extending their lead. In addition, the hosts have the better average xG, 1.56 compared with 1.39, as well as a significantly higher season-long rate of leading at half-time, 44% versus 22%. Therefore, the most likely scenario is Columbus leading at half-time and securing victory at full-time, corresponding to the HT/FT outcome 1/1.