Colwyn Bay vs Llandudno: match statistics

Llandudno sit 5th, while Colwyn Bay are ninth, and the visitors have won 3 of their 4 matches this season, with an 11:5 goal record. Their attacking potential away from home looks particularly strong: they average 2.5 goals, register 6.5 shots on target and generate an xG of 1.78, compared with Colwyn Bay’s 1.5 goals and xG of 1.53 at home. However, the hosts are very difficult to break down at their own stadium, having won both matches, kept two clean sheets and allowed opponents just 0.98 xG. Llandudno have the better record over their last five matches, averaging 1.8 points per game compared with 1.6, but they have conceded 8 goals during that period, increasing Colwyn Bay’s chances of finding the net. The visitors’ slight edge in the quality of chances created and finishing efficiency points to an away win, although the hosts’ solid home defence makes this an evenly matched fixture.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the very high attacking potential of both sides: Colwyn Bay score an average of 3.0 goals, while Llandudno average 2.5, with xG figures of 1.73 and 1.78 respectively. The hosts have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 1.5 goals, which significantly increases the chances of an effective Llandudno attack. The visitors do have a 50% clean-sheet rate, but in their last five matches they have allowed opponents an average of 1.6 goals, while their average xG against stands at 1.14. The signal is not entirely conclusive, as Colwyn Bay’s current BTTS rate across their last five matches is only 20%; however, Llandudno have recorded BTTS in 80% of their matches during this period and score an average of 2.4 goals. The scenario of both teams scoring is further supported by the fact that both sides have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their matches so far this season.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have gone above this line in 100% of their matches so far this season. Llandudno average 2.5 goals scored per match and 6.5 shots on target, while Colwyn Bay have yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding an average of 1.5 goals. The hosts’ recent form has been more subdued, scoring and conceding 1.0 goal per game across their last five matches. However, during the same period, the visitors averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The xG figures also support a scenario featuring several chances: 1.37 for Colwyn Bay and 1.70 for Llandudno, with their opponents recording 1.14 and 1.03 xG respectively. The projected total of 2.90 goals also provides moderate support for Over 2.5, but Over 1.5 remains the clearly safer option.

Colwyn Bay have an outstanding home record: they have won 100% of their matches so far, scoring an average of 3.0 goals and collecting 3.0 points per game. In their last five appearances, the hosts led at the break in 60% of matches and conceded just 0.2 goals on average before half-time, while Llandudno were behind after 45 minutes in 60% of games and conceded 1.0 goal during that period. However, the advantage is not conclusive, as the visitors average 1.78 xG compared with Colwyn Bay’s 1.73 xG and record 6.5 shots on target per match against the hosts’ 5.5. Nevertheless, Colwyn Bay have averaged 2.0 goals after the break in their home matches and have conceded none, winning the second half in 100% of cases. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT scenario in which Colwyn Bay take the lead at the break and hold it until full-time, although Llandudno’s strong attacking potential reduces confidence in this scenario.