Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca: match statistics

Comerciantes Unidos have a clear home advantage: they win 45% of their home matches and lose only 9%, while FC Cajamarca suffer defeat in 64% of their away games. The hosts concede just 0.73 goals per home match on average and keep a clean sheet in 45% of their appearances, whereas the visitors have not kept a single clean sheet away from home, conceding an average of 1.73 goals. In attack, Comerciantes Unidos create more, averaging 14.09 shots and an xG of 1.48, compared with Cajamarca’s 9.82 shots and xG of 1.05. Current form also favours the hosts, who have collected 7 points from their last five matches, while the visitors have managed only 3 and lost four of those games. FC Cajamarca may benefit from their 11% shot conversion rate, but the fact that they fail to score in 45% of their away matches significantly limits their chances of an upset.

Comerciantes Unidos have recorded BTTS in 83% of their matches, well above the league average of 56%, while FC Cajamarca have seen this scenario in 55% of games. Neither team has kept a clean sheet at any point this season, with the hosts conceding an average of 1.92 goals and the visitors 1.73. In their last five appearances, the BTTS rate stood at 80% for both teams, while they scored an average of 2.0 and 1.6 goals, respectively, and conceded 1.6 and 2.4. The hosts generate an average of 1.32 xG, while Cajamarca’s defence allows opponents 1.71 xG, which particularly strengthens the chances of them scoring. The visitors have shown less consistency in front of goal, failing to score in 45% of matches; however, their current 1.55 xG and 1.6 goals per game across their last five matches support a goal in reply.

Comerciantes Unidos score an average of 1.75 goals per match, while FC Cajamarca concede 1.73, creating favorable conditions for the hosts to find the net. The hosts’ defense has also failed to keep a single clean sheet, while the visitors score an average of 1.09 goals, increasing to 1.60 over their last five matches. Both teams’ recent form has been clearly goal-oriented: each recorded Over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 80% of those games. A projected total of 3.05 goals, combined with at least 2 goals being scored in 92% of the hosts’ matches and 73% of the visitors’ matches, provides the strongest edge for Over 1.5 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Comerciantes Unidos victory, as the home side were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while FC Cajamarca were trailing at half-time in 60% of that sample. Across the season, the home side average 1.75 goals and create chances worth 1.32 xG at home, compared with 1.09 goals and 1.05 xG for the visitors. Cajamarca have lost 64% of their matches this season and as many as 80% of their last five, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game during that period. The first half could be evenly contested, as Comerciantes Unidos average just 0.58 goals before the break, while neither team have led at half-time in their last five matches. After the restart, the home side’s advantage should grow: they average 1.17 goals in the second half, while the visitors have already conceded seven goals in the opening 15 minutes of matches, highlighting their defensive vulnerability.