Concarneau vs Paris 13 Atletico: match statistics

Concarneau sit 4th and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, while ninth-placed Paris 13 Atletico have won just once during that spell. At home, the hosts average 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded, whereas the visitors manage just 0.33 goals per away game and concede 1.67. Concarneau’s edge in chance creation is reflected in their home xG of 1.25, compared with Paris 13 Atletico’s away xG of 0.93; the hosts also average 4 shots on target per match, while the visitors average 2.67. Paris 13 Atletico are yet to win away from home, losing 67% of their away matches and failing to score in 67% of them, which points to a home win. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Concarneau have shared the points in 3 of their last 5 matches.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring is Paris 13 Atletico's attack: they average 0.33 goals away from home and have failed to score in 67% of matches. Concarneau concede an average of just 0.4 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 60% of matches, so the visitors may struggle to breach their defence. The quality of chances also points against them: their average away xG is 0.93, compared with 0.85 xG conceded by the hosts at home. Concarneau are more likely to score, as Paris 13 Atletico concede an average of 1.67 goals away from home, but a goal from the hosts alone would not be enough for a BTTS - Yes bet to win. Over their last 5 matches, the visitors have averaged 0.6 goals scored, while the hosts have conceded 0.8, making it more likely that at least one team will fail to score—a BTTS - No outcome.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in any of Concarneau’s home matches or Paris 13 Atletico’s away matches so far. Concarneau average 1.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded at home, while Paris 13 Atletico score just 0.33 goals and concede 1.67 on the road. The visitors have failed to score in 67% of their away matches, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their home games, limiting the chances of a high-scoring game. Although the visitors’ defence allows an average of 1.28 xG, the hosts generate 1.07 xG, so a forecast of around 1.9 total goals still clearly favours Under 3.5.

Concarneau led at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches, while Paris 13 Atletico were trailing at half-time in 2 of their 3 away games and failed to score in the first half in both. The hosts concede an average of just 0.2 goals before the break at home, compared with 1.0 for the visitors away, pointing to an early Concarneau lead. The hosts’ advantage over the full match is supported by 3 wins in 5 home games and the visitors’ failure to win away, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per match. A half-time draw remains a realistic possibility, as Concarneau were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches; however, the hosts’ advantage in both halves at home makes 1/1 the most likely HT/FT outcome.