Concepción vs La Serena: match statistics
Concepción vs La Serena: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Concepción played La Serena in Primera División (Chile). The match was played on 19 April 2026. Final score: 3:3.
Current form
Concepción: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. La Serena: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Concepción scores 0.44 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. La Serena scores 1.11 and concedes 1.22. League average: 2.58 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Concepción 33%, La Serena 33%. Over 2.5: Concepción 33%, La Serena 44%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
xG is very similar for both teams. Concepción: 12.3 shots per match, La Serena: 10.3.
Match halves
Concepción: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.22. La Serena: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Concepción: 76-90+ (2 goals). La Serena: 31-45+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.58 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
La Serena is the favorite for this match: in the last 5 games the visitors have averaged 2.0 points per match (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and scored 7 goals, while Concepción in their last 5 have only 0.6 points per match (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses) and 1 goal. At home Concepción exhibits extremely low efficiency — an average of 0.33 goals per match and no goal in 67% of home fixtures, despite generating 1.16 xG, 13 shots and 3 on target per match; this implies xG is being underutilized by about 0.83 goals per match and a very low conversion rate of 3%. La Serena away averages 0.75 goals with xG 1.10 and posts a better shot conversion of 7%, plus 25% of away matches with a clean sheet, which combined with 3 wins in the last 5 gives them the edge. Defensively both teams can be unstable — Concepción have conceded 14 goals this season (7 in the last 5), and La Serena 11 (6 in the last 5), but the difference in chance conversion (7% vs 3%) and form (2.0 vs 0.6 pts/match in the last 5) favors the visitors. For these reasons I expect La Serena to exploit superior efficiency and take the victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - No. Concepción averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes 0.8 per match, while La Serena as the away side records only 0.75 goals scored and concedes 1.75. Home team clean sheets occur in 40% of Concepción’s home matches and they have 0% BTTS in their last 5, whereas La Serena’s season BTTS rate is 25% and 20% in the last 5 — both metrics weaken the Goal/Goal scenario. xG and shot data affirm the home advantage: Concepción posts xG 1.21 with 4.6 shots on target and a 13% conversion, versus La Serena xG 1.1, 3.25 shots on target and 7% conversion, indicating the visitors are less clinical. Even though La Serena concedes 1.75 and has xG against 1.62 (suggesting opponents should score), the visitors’ low scoring output (0.75) and the high proportion of home clean sheets (40%) favor a single-team scoring outcome. Probability split: 70% No, 30% Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The averaged xG for this match (home attack xG 1.21 and away defense xG 1.62) is 1.42 for Concepción, and (La Serena attack xG 1.10 and home defense xG 1.25) is 1.18 for La Serena — totaling ~2.60 goals. Seasonal averages confirm this: Concepción scores 1.4 and concedes 0.8, La Serena scores 0.75 and concedes 1.75, indicating home defensive solidity versus away defensive vulnerability. Additionally Concepción registers 4.6 shots on target per match with a 13% conversion rate, while La Serena posts 3.25 SoT and a 7% conversion, increasing the hosts’ chance to convert chances. Seasonal percentages of matches over 2.5 goals are 40% (home) and 50% (away), the league average is 48%, and in La Serena’s last 5 matches they scored 7 goals (1.4 avg) versus Concepción’s 1 goal (0.2) — giving a moderate edge to the Over. Considering the total xG of 2.60 and the home advantage in conversion and SoT, the optimal market to play is Over 2.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the evidence largely favors Concepción: the home side led at the break in 60% of their matches this season, they average 1.2 goals by half-time versus 0.25 for La Serena, and have 8 first-half goals compared to 2 for the visitors. For full-time the numbers also favor the hosts — Concepción scores on average 1.4 goals per match and concedes 0.8, while La Serena concedes 1.75 goals per match and has only a 7% shot conversion; the hosts’ xG is 1.21 versus 1.10 for the visitors. A strong signal against a nailed-on result, however, is form: La Serena have won 60% of their last five matches and in those five fixtures they led at the break in 60% of cases, and the visitors scored twice in the 46–60 minute window, which increases the probability of a turnaround after half-time. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (31%), while leaving room for a comeback (1/X 10%, 1/2 7%, X/1 12%, X/X 11%, X/2 8%, 2/1 2%, 2/X 4%, 2/2 15%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Concepción | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 23% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
La Serena is 233% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Concepción · 2 pts / match - La Serena
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
La Serena is 152% better for: goals scored per match.
0.44 goals / match - Concepción · 1.11 goals / match - La Serena
La Serena is 28% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - Concepción · 1.22 goals / match - La Serena
Concepción scores in 44% of matches (4 of 9 matches), while La Serena keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
La Serena scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Concepción keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Concepción
Over / Under - La Serena
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
La Serena is 60% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.11 pts / match - Concepción · 1.78 pts / match - La Serena
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Concepción - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 11%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
La Serena - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Concepción
La Serena
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Concepción | Liga | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.58 | ▼ 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 41% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 48% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 32% | • 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 67% | • 67% |
| Goal after half-time | • 78% | 78% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Concepción vs La Serena?
The Primera División match finished Concepción 3:3 La Serena. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Concepción vs La Serena?
Concepción score 0.44 goals per game on average and La Serena 1.11. The Primera División average is 2.58 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Concepción's matches and 33% of La Serena's.
What form are Concepción and La Serena in?
Over the last 5 games Concepción have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and La Serena 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Concepción vs La Serena?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.