Concepción vs O'Higgins: match statistics
Concepción vs O'Higgins: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Concepción played O'Higgins in Primera División (Chile). The match was played on 27 July 2026. Venue: Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Concepción: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. O'Higgins: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Concepción scores 0.93 and concedes 1.53 goals per match. O'Higgins scores 1.27 and concedes 1.47. League average: 2.83 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Concepción 40%, O'Higgins 47%. Over 2.5: Concepción 40%, O'Higgins 47%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
O'Higgins has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.28. Concepción: 12.9 shots per match, O'Higgins: 13.7.
Match halves
Concepción: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.53. O'Higgins: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.60.
Goals by minute
Concepción: 76-90+ (4 goals). O'Higgins: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.83 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win (1): Concepción has won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in that span, averaging 1.8 goals per game and 2.4 points per game over the last five fixtures. Concepción’s case is strengthened by a higher home xG of 1.52 versus O'Higgins' 1.26 and greater shot production — 14.86 attempts and 4.57 shots on target per game compared to the visitors' 10.57 attempts and 4.43 on target. O'Higgins, however, are more efficient with fewer chances (15% shot conversion vs. the home side’s 9%) and have 19 goals this season versus Concepción's 14, making them dangerous when converting opportunities. Defensively the hosts also fare better at home: Concepción concedes 1.57 goals per game versus O'Higgins' 1.86 on the road, and have an xG against of 1.25 vs 1.64, suggesting the visitors are more susceptible to conceding. Considering the advantage in chance creation and clearer form (2.4 pts vs 1.6 pts in the last 5), I assign Concepción 55%, draw 20% and O'Higgins 25%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes at 68% vs 32% for No, because offensive signals and low clean sheet rates favor both teams scoring. Season BTTS rate: Concepción 38%, O'Higgins 57%, league average 49% — advantage to the visitors. In the last 5 matches O'Higgins have BTTS 100% vs Concepción 40%; additionally Concepción average scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0, while O'Higgins score 2.0 and concede 1.4 in their last 5. xG also supports goals: Concepción xG_for 1.76 vs O'Higgins average xG_allowed 1.64; O'Higgins xG_for 1.26 vs Concepción xG_allowed 1.10, suggesting both sides create chances that exceed the opponent's defensive capacity. Low clean sheet percentages (25% and 29%) and the difference in shot conversion (6% for Concepción vs 15% for O'Higgins) confirm the visitors are more clinical, reinforcing the BTTS scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate total expected goals at 2.88: Concepción 1.70 (attack xG 1.76 vs opponent xG conceded 1.64 → ≈1.70) and O'Higgins 1.18 (attack xG 1.26 vs hosts' xG conceded 1.10 → ≈1.18). With λ=2.88 the Poisson distribution yields probability of over 1.5 (≥2 goals) ≈78%, over 2.5 (≥3) ≈55% and over 3.5 (≥4) ≈33%. Team data support the over: O'Higgins has 86% of matches this season with over 1.5 goals and in the last 5 games averages 2.0 goals with 100% BTTS rate, while Concepción generates on average 16.5 shots and xG 1.76 but only 1.0 actual goal (conversion 6%), indicating many chances. The visitors concede on average 1.86 goals per season and their xG against is 1.64, so they are prone to conceding. Therefore I select over 1.5 as the strongest signal (over, line 1.5) — it has the highest probability at 78% and is consistent with xG and form.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time a draw or an away lead is more likely — O'Higgins averages 0.86 goals by the break versus Concepción's 0.5, and in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 8 first-half goals compared to 3 for the hosts. Nonetheless Concepción clearly outperforms in chance creation: home xG 1.76 versus O'Higgins 1.26, on average 16.5 shots versus 10.57 and 5.38 shots on target versus 4.43, which indicates greater control after the break. Second-half data supports this — Concepción has gained 10 points after half-time versus 5 for the visitors and averages 1.25 points in the second half versus O'Higgins' 0.71, while the visitors concede 1.29 goals on average after the break compared to 0.5 for the hosts. Form also favors the hosts: Concepción with 4 wins in the last 5 matches (80%) versus 2 wins for O'Higgins (40%), and season win rates of 50% vs 29%. Therefore the most reliable scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Concepción | O'Higgins | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 27% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Concepción is 125% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Concepción · 0.8 pts / match - O'Higgins
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
O'Higgins is 37% better for: goals scored per match.
0.93 goals / match - Concepción · 1.27 goals / match - O'Higgins
Concepción scores in 60% of matches (9 of 15 matches), while O'Higgins keeps a clean sheet in 27% (4 of 15 matches).
O'Higgins scores in 67% of matches (10 of 15 matches), while Concepción keeps a clean sheet in 20% (3 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Concepción
Over / Under - O'Higgins
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Concepción is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Concepción · 1.2 pts / match - O'Higgins
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Concepción - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 27%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
O'Higgins - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Concepción
O'Higgins
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Concepción | Liga | O'Higgins | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.47 | 2.83 | ▼ 2.73 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 50% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 54% | ▼ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 28% | • 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 72% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 75% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Concepción 0 - 0 - 1 O'Higgins. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Concepción vs O'Higgins?
The Primera División match finished Concepción 2:0 O'Higgins. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Concepción vs O'Higgins?
Concepción score 0.93 goals per game on average and O'Higgins 1.27. The Primera División average is 2.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 40% of Concepción's matches and 47% of O'Higgins's.
What form are Concepción and O'Higgins in?
Over the last 5 games Concepción have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and O'Higgins 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Concepción vs O'Higgins?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.