Concordia Chiajna vs Afumaţi: match statistics

Concordia Chiajna sit 4th, while Afumaţi are only 13th, and the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring as many as 15 goals in that run. During the same period, the visitors have scored just 6 goals, recording 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. At home, Concordia average 12 shots, including 6 on target, compared with Afumaţi’s 10 attempts and 5.5 shots on target away from home. However, the hosts’ advantage is weakened by a defence that concedes an average of 2.5 goals per match at home, with an xG against of 1.68, meaning the visitors, who average 1.65 xG away, should create opportunities to score. Despite this defensive vulnerability, Concordia’s superior current form and their run of 4 wins in 5 matches point towards a narrow home victory.

The signal for both teams to score is positive, as Concordia have recorded BTTS in 67% of their matches and Afumaţi in as many as 100%, with neither team having kept a clean sheet so far. The hosts have averaged 3.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over their last 5 matches, with all 5 of their most recent fixtures ending in Goal/Goal outcomes. Afumaţi average 1.0 goal per match this season but create chances worth 1.65 xG, while their average xG has risen to 1.96 across their last 5 appearances. Concordia allow opponents 0.93 xG per match; however, their lack of clean sheets and 8 goals conceded in 6 fixtures increase the visitors’ chances of scoring. The risk to this pick is that only 40% of Afumaţi’s last five matches featured BTTS, but the combination of both teams’ defensive weaknesses and the hosts’ high attacking potential still favours the BTTS - Yes option.

In both teams’ matches this season, at least 2 goals have been scored in 100% of cases, which strongly supports Over 1.5. Concordia averages 1.33 goals at home, but has raised that figure to 3.0 over the last 5 matches, while conceding 1.8 goals per game. Afumaţi averages 1.0 goals away from home and has failed to keep a clean sheet, just like the hosts, who also have 0% of matches without conceding. Their attacking potential is confirmed by the xG figures: 2.07 for Concordia and 1.65 for Afumaţi. Therefore, the baseline scenario is at least 2 goals, making Over 1.5 the strongest selection.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Concordia win at the final whistle, as Afumaţi were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and scored just 0.2 goals per game in those first halves. Over the same period, Concordia recorded a higher first-half points tally, averaging 1.4 points per game compared with the opponent’s 0.8, but their average of 1.0 goal conceded before the break supports a cautious scenario without a clear advantage. After half-time, the hosts improve significantly: in their last five matches, they scored an average of 2.2 goals, won the second half in 80% of cases and did not lose any of those five second halves. Afumaţi, meanwhile, conceded an average of 2.0 goals after the break in their away data and have not won any away match overall, while Concordia won 67% of their home fixtures. The hosts’ advantage is also supported by an attacking xG of 2.07, with just 0.93 xG conceded in front of their own goal. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a Concordia win after a level first half: X/1.